Liberty vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - Aug. 1

Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury (11-18) battle Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty (16-13) on Saturday, August 1, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center, at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.

New York suffered defeat by a final score of 104-99 in its last game against Las Vegas. Leading the way on offense for the Liberty was Stewart, who wound up with 19 points, 11 rebounds and two steals. Pauline Astier posted 19 points, four assists and two steals.

Phoenix lost at home to Golden State 89-91 last time out, and were led by Copper (27 PTS, 64.3 FG%, 3-4 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (25 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST, 71.4 FG%).

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Liberty vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Snag a look below at the latest betting lines for the Liberty-Mercury matchup.

• Favorite: Liberty (-2.5)
• Total: 174.5
• Liberty Moneyline: -144
• Mercury Moneyline: +118

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Liberty Betting Insights

• The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives the Liberty a 59.0% chance to win.
• New York has won 13 of the 23 games when it was favored on the moneyline this season (56.5%).
• The Liberty have put together an 11-18-0 record against the spread this season.
• New York's games this season have featured more combined points than this contest's total of 174.5 points 17 times.
• Liberty games this season have had an average of 172.7 points, 1.8 fewer than this matchup's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The Mercury have a 45.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• This season, Phoenix has been the underdog 18 times and won six, or 33.3%, of those games.
• The Mercury are 13-16-0 ATS this season.
• Phoenix has combined with its opponent to score more than 174.5 points in nine of 29 games this season.
• The average total for Mercury games this season is 168.6 points, 5.9 fewer points than this game's over/under.

Key Stats for Liberty vs. Mercury

• The 89.7 points per game New York scores are just 3.1 more points than Phoenix gives up (86.6).
• When the Liberty put up more than 86.6 points, they are 12-6.
• New York has scored at a much lower clip at home than away from home in the 2026 season (85 points per game at home versus 93.6 on the road), and has given up fewer points in home games than on the road (80.8 per home game versus 93.1 on the road).
• Phoenix averages only 4.4 fewer points per game (83.2) than New York allows its opponents to score (87.6).
• The Mercury have gone 7-5 when they've scored more than 87.6 points.
• Phoenix averages more points per game at home (85.1) than on the road (81.5), but also allows more at home (87.9) than away (85.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.