Liberty vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - Aug. 1

Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury (11-18) match up against Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty (16-13) on Saturday, August 1, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center, at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.

New York fell to Las Vegas 104-99 in its last game. Stewart led the way with 26 points, 11 rebounds and three steals, followed by Pauline Astier with 19 points, four assists and two steals.

In its most recent game, Phoenix defeated Golden State 91-89 at home, with Copper (27 PTS, 64.3 FG%, 3-4 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (25 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST, 71.4 FG%) leading the way.

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Liberty vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Snag a look below at the most recent betting lines for the Liberty-Mercury matchup.

• Favorite: Liberty (-2.5)
• Total: 176.5
• Liberty Moneyline: -152
• Mercury Moneyline: +124

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Liberty Betting Insights

• The Liberty have an implied moneyline win probability of 60.3% in this matchup.
• New York has won 56.5% of its games this season when favored on the moneyline (13-10).
• The Liberty have covered 11 times in 29 matchups with a spread this season.
• New York's 29 games this season have gone over this contest's total of 176.5 points 16 times.
• The Liberty have an average point total of 172.7 in their outings this year, 3.8 fewer points than this game's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The moneyline for this contest implies a 44.6% chance of a victory for the Mercury.
• Phoenix has been the underdog in 18 games this season and won six (33.3%) of those contests.
• The Mercury are 13-16-0 ATS this year.
• Phoenix has played nine games this season that ended with a point total over 176.5 points.
• Mercury matchups this season have a 168.6-point average over/under, 7.9 fewer points than this game's total.

Key Stats for Liberty vs. Mercury

• New York records 89.7 points per game, only 3.1 more points than the 86.6 Phoenix gives up.
• When the Liberty score more than 86.6 points, they are 12-6.
• So far in the 2026 season, New York is scoring 8.6 fewer points per home game than on the road (85 at home, 93.6 on the road), and is also conceding 12.3 fewer points per home game compared to road games (80.8 at home, 93.1 on the road).
• Phoenix's 83.2 points per game are only 4.4 fewer points than the 87.6 New York gives up to opponents.
• When they score more than 87.6 points, the Mercury are 7-5.
• At home Phoenix puts up 85.1 points per game, 3.6 more than away (81.5). On defense, it concedes 87.9 points per game at home, 2.5 more than on the road (85.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.