Liberty vs. Missouri State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - CUSA Tournament

The top-seeded Liberty Flames (25-6, 17-3 CUSA) are 5.5-point favorites in CUSA Tournament against the No. 9 seed Missouri State Bears (15-17, 8-12 CUSA) on Wednesday at Von Braun Center. The matchup tips at 6:30 p.m. ET and airs on ESPN+, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The over/under for the matchup is 144.

In its last game on Saturday, Liberty secured a 79-72 win over Sam Houston. In the win, Zach Cleveland paced Liberty with 19 points. Missouri State's last game on Tuesday ended in a 75-72 win over Florida International. Kobi Williams recorded 15 points, zero rebounds and two assists for Missouri State.

Liberty vs. Missouri State Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Von Braun Center in Huntsville, Alabama
• Spread favorite: Liberty -5.5
• Moneyline favorite: Liberty -235
• Moneyline underdog: Missouri State +187
• Over/Under: 144 points

How to watch Liberty vs. Missouri State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Liberty vs. Missouri State

• A total of 19 of Liberty's games this season have gone over Wednesday's over/under of 144 points.
• There have been 15 Missouri State games that finished with a combined score higher than 144 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 153.8 points per game, 9.8 points more than the point total of 144 for this contest.
• The 144.1 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 0.1 more than the 144 over/under in this contest.
• This season, the average over/under for Liberty's games is 148.6 points, 4.6 more than the total of 144 points set for this contest.
• A difference of 5.1 points separates the average over/under in Missouri State's games (149.1 points) and this game's over/under (144).

Betting the Spread: Liberty vs. Missouri State

• Liberty has played 28 games, with 12 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Flames have been installed as favorites by a 5.5-point margin or more 17 times and are 6-11 ATS in those matchups.
• In Missouri State's 29 games this season, it has 16 wins against the spread.
• So far this year, the Bears have been installed as underdogs by a 5.5-point margin or more eight times and are 4-4 ATS in those games.
• Liberty is 6-7 against the spread, and 11-2 overall, at home.
• At home, as a 5.5-point favorite or greater, Liberty is 5-7 ATS.
• Away from home, Missouri State is 3-10 overall and 8-5 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: Liberty vs. Missouri State

• Liberty has won 20, or 80%, of the 25 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• This season, the Flames have won 12 of their 15 games, or 80%, when favored by at least -235 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from Liberty, based on the moneyline, is 70.1%.
• Missouri State has come away with three wins in the 13 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• This year, the Bears have won one of eight games when listed as at least +187 or worse on the moneyline.
• Missouri State has an implied victory probability of 34.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.