Kentucky vs. Michigan State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 18

The No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats (3-1) host the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (3-0) at Madison Square Garden, tipping off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 18, 2025. The Spartans are 5.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup's point total is set at 154.5.

Kentucky came out on top in its last outing 99-53 against Eastern Illinois on Friday. Mouhamed Dioubate's team-high 20 points paced Kentucky in the win. Michigan State enters this matchup on the heels of a 79-60 win against San Jose State on Thursday. Carson Cooper scored 17 points in Michigan State's win, leading the team.

Kentucky vs. Michigan State Odds and Game Time

• When: Tuesday, November 18, 2025 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
• Spread favorite: Kentucky -5.5
• Moneyline favorite: Kentucky -218
• Moneyline underdog: Michigan State +180
• Over/Under: 154.5 points

How to watch Kentucky vs. Michigan State

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Live Stream: Fubo
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Kentucky vs. Michigan State

• Kentucky played 22 games with over 154.5 points scored, its current matchup's over/under, last year.
• Last year, 11 of Michigan State's 37 matchups went over 154.5 total points scored.
• The Wildcats and the Spartans combined to average 7.6 more points per game a season ago than the total of 154.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these teams averaged a combined 144.3 points per game last season, 10.2 fewer than the over/under for this game.
• The average total Kentucky had set in matchups last year was 7.2 more points than this outing's point total.
• Michigan State's games in 2024 averaged an over/under of 144.8 points, 9.7 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

Betting the Spread: Kentucky vs. Michigan State

• Kentucky compiled an 18-18-0 ATS record last year.
• The Wildcats had an ATS record of 8-8 when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites last season.
• Michigan State won 24 games against the spread last year, while failing to cover 13 times.
• The Spartans were an underdog by 5.5 points or more four times last season, and covered the spread in two of those contests.
• Kentucky was 10-8 against the spread, and 15-3 overall, at home last season.
• Kentucky was 7-6 ATS as a 5.5-point favorite or greater at home last year.
• In away games last season, Michigan State was 7-2 overall and 7-2 against the spread.
• Michigan State was unbeaten ATS (1-0) on the road as a 5.5-point underdog or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Kentucky vs. Michigan State

• Kentucky won 17 of the 23 games it was the moneyline favorite last season (73.9%).
• When they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -218 or shorter, the Wildcats had a 15-2 record (winning 88.2% of their games).
• Based on this matchup's moneyline, Kentucky's implied win probability is 68.6%.
• Last season, Michigan State was the underdog eight times and won five of those games.
• The Spartans had a record of 2-2 in games where sportsbooks had them as underdogs of at least +180 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 35.7% chance of a victory for Michigan State.