Illinois vs. Pennsylvania Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - First Round
17 March 2026
The No. 14 Pennsylvania Quakers (18-11) are 25.5-point underdogs to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they face off against the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (24-8) on Thursday. Here are some insights into this 3-14 matchup in the South Region bracket that begins at 9:25 p.m. ET, live on TNT. The matchup has an over/under set at 150.5 points.
Illinois dropped its most recent matchup 91-88 in OT against Wisconsin on Friday. David Mirkovic's team-leading 19 points paced Illinois in the losing effort. Pennsylvania enters this matchup following an 88-84 win over Yale in overtime on Sunday. TJ Power's team-leading 44 points paced Pennsylvania in the win.
Illinois vs. Pennsylvania Odds and Game Time
- When: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 9:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina
- Spread favorite: Illinois -25.5
- Moneyline favorite: Illinois -10000
- Moneyline underdog: Pennsylvania +2340
- Over/Under: 150.5 points
How to watch Illinois vs. Pennsylvania
Betting the Over/Under: Illinois vs. Pennsylvania
- This season, 16 of Illinois' 32 games have gone over Thursday's total of 150.5 points.
- This season, 13 games Pennsylvania has played finished with a combined score over 150.5 points.
- The Fighting Illini average 84.4 points per game against the Quakers' 76.1, amounting to 10.0 points over the matchup's total of 150.5.
- This matchup's point total is 7.4 fewer points than the 143.1 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
- On average, Illinois has had a 154.2-point over/under in its games this season, 3.7 more points than the over/under in this contest.
- A difference of 1.1 points separates this contest's over/under (150.5 points) and the average over/under in Pennsylvania's games (149.4) this season.
Betting the Spread: Illinois vs. Pennsylvania
- Illinois has played 32 games, with 18 wins against the spread.
- So far this season, the Fighting Illini have been installed as favorites by a 25.5-point margin or more six times and are 4-2 ATS in those matchups.
- Pennsylvania is 20-8-0 against the spread this season.
- At home this season, Illinois is 14-3 overall and 10-7 against the spread.
- As a 25.5-point favorite or more at home, Illinois is 4-2 ATS.
- This season away from home, Pennsylvania is 10-2 against the spread and 4-8 overall.
Betting the Moneyline: Illinois vs. Pennsylvania
- Illinois has won 21, or 80.8%, of the 26 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
- The Fighting Illini have entered six games this season favored by -10000 or more, and won each of those games.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 99% chance of a victory for Illinois.
- Pennsylvania has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in 17 games this year and has walked away with the win seven times (41.2%) in those games.
- The Quakers have yet to play a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +2340.
- Pennsylvania has an implied victory probability of 4.1% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
