Illinois vs. Iowa Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Elite Eight

The No. 3 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8, 15-5 Big Ten) and No. 9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes (24-12, 10-10 Big Ten) will both be vying for a spot in the NCAA Tournament Final Four when they meet on Saturday at Toyota Center, tipping off at 6:09 p.m. ET, airing on TBS. Illinois is more likely to win the final game of the South Region bracket with bookmakers installing the as 6.5-point favorites. The matchup's point total is set at 138.5.

Illinois enters this matchup on the heels of a 65-55 victory over Houston on Thursday. David Mirkovic scored a team-high 14 points for Illinois in the victory. Iowa is coming off of a 77-71 win against Nebraska in its most recent outing on Thursday. Bennett Stirtz totaled 20 points, two rebounds and four assists for Iowa.

Illinois vs. Iowa Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 6:09 p.m. ET
• Where: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
• Spread favorite: Illinois -6.5
• Moneyline favorite: Illinois -299
• Moneyline underdog: Iowa +235
• Over/Under: 138.5 points

How to watch Illinois vs. Iowa

• TV Channel: TBS
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Illinois vs. Iowa

• Illinois and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday's over/under (138.5 points) 26 times this season.
• A total of 23 of Iowa's games have finished with a combined score higher than 138.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 159.2 points per game, 20.7 points more than the over/under of 138.5 for this contest.
• These two teams give up a combined 135.1 points per game, 3.4 points less than this contest's over/under.
• This season, the average over/under for Illinois' games is 153.1 points, 14.6 more than the total of 138.5 points set for this contest.
• The over/under for this contest is 2.6 points lower than the average over/under in Iowa's games this season (141.1 points).

Betting the Spread: Illinois vs. Iowa

• In Illinois' 35 games this season, it has 21 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Fighting Illini have an ATS record of 14-10 in their 24 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more.
• In Iowa's 36 games this season, it has 21 wins against the spread.
• The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS when underdogs by 6.5 points or more this year.
• Illinois is 10-7 against the spread, and 14-3 overall, at home.
• At home, as a 6.5-point favorite or greater, Illinois is 9-6 ATS.
• This season away from home, Iowa is 5-6 against the spread and 3-8 overall.
• Iowa has one win ATS (1-2) as 6.5-point underdogs or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Illinois vs. Iowa

• Illinois has won 23, or 82.1%, of the 28 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Fighting Illini have entered 23 games this season favored by -299 or more and are 20-3 in those contests.
• Illinois has a 74.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Iowa has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in 12 games this year and has walked away with the win three times (25%) in those games.
• The Hawkeyes have a mark of 1-3 in contests where oddsmakers give them odds of +235 or worse on the moneyline.
• Iowa has an implied victory probability of 29.9% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.