Duke vs. Florida State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - ACC Tournament

The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (29-2, 17-1 ACC) are 17.5-point favorites to win and move closer to a guaranteed berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket against the No. 8 seed Florida State Seminoles (18-14, 10-8 ACC) in the ACC Tournament Thursday at Spectrum Center, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The matchup's point total is 151.5.

Duke is coming off of a 76-61 win over North Carolina in its most recent game on Saturday. In the win, Cameron Boozer paced Duke with 26 points. Florida State came out on top in its most recent game 95-89 against Cal on Wednesday. Robert McCray scored a team-best 30 points for Florida State in the win.

Duke vs. Florida State Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
• Spread favorite: Duke -17.5
• Moneyline favorite: Duke -2222
• Moneyline underdog: Florida State +1050
• Over/Under: 151.5 points

How to watch Duke vs. Florida State

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Duke vs. Florida State

• Duke and its opponents have combined to hit the over on Thursday's total of 151.5 points 12 times this season.
• There have been 20 Florida State games that ended with a combined score higher than 151.5 points this season.
• The Blue Devils average 82.9 points per game against the Seminoles' 80.4, amounting to 11.8 points over the game's total of 151.5.
• This game's over/under is 11.1 fewer points than the 140.4 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• On average, the over/under in Duke's games is 6.1 fewer points than the over/under of 151.5 in this matchup.
• Florida State's games have an average over/under of 158.3 points this season, 6.8 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Duke vs. Florida State

• Against the spread, Duke is 18-13-0 this year.
• This season, the Blue Devils have an ATS record of 6-7 in their 13 games as a favorite of 17.5 points or more.
• Florida State has played 32 games, with 19 wins against the spread.
• The Seminoles covered the spread in their only game when underdogs by 17.5 points or more.
• Duke is 15-0 overall, and 7-8 against the spread, at home.
• At home, Duke is 4-6 ATS as a 17.5-point favorite or more.
• Florida State is 8-3 against the spread, and 6-5 overall, in away games.

Betting the Moneyline: Duke vs. Florida State

• Duke has entered the game as moneyline favorites 27 times this season and won 25, or 92.6%, of those games.
• The Blue Devils have been at least a -2222 moneyline favorite 10 times this season and won each of those games.
• The implied probability of a win from Duke, based on the moneyline, is 95.7%.
• Florida State has come away with four wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Seminoles have played as an underdog of +1050 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Florida State has an 8.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.