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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - March 10

10 March 2026 By Data Skrive

The Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a win and a defeat, respectively, heading into their meeting at Bell Centre on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. Canadiens (-170) versus Maple Leafs (+142) has a clear favorite, according to the moneyline odds.

Montreal won 4-3 on the road its last time out on March 7 against the Los Angeles Kings. The Canadiens were led by Juraj Slafkovsky (two goals and one assist) and Nicholas Suzuki (one goal and two assists).

Toronto's last game was a home loss, 5-2, against the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 7. Matias Maccelli (one goal) and William Nylander (one assist) were among the three Maple Leafs players who collected one point each in that outing.

Here is our prediction for who will capture the victory in Tuesday's game.

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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Predictions & Pick

For predictions on the upcoming game between the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, sourced from Dunkel Index.

  • Prediction: Maple Leafs 4 - Canadiens 3
  • Pick OU: Over 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 7.01 goals)

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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Moneylines

Snag a look below at the most recent moneylines for the Canadiens-Maple Leafs game.

  • Favorite: Canadiens (-170)
  • Underdog: Maple Leafs (+142)

Canadiens Betting Insights

  • The Canadiens are 14-13 when favored on the moneyline this season.
  • Montreal has had moneyline odds of -170 or shorter in just two games this season, and won both.
  • The Canadiens' implied moneyline win probability is 63.0% in this matchup.
  • Montreal's games this season have gone over this matchup's total of 6.5 goals 38 times.

Maple Leafs Betting Insights

  • This season the Maple Leafs have been an underdog 31 times, and won 11, or 35.5%, of those games.
  • Toronto has a record of 4-5 in games when bookmakers have them as underdogs of at least +142 on the moneyline.
  • The Maple Leafs have a 41.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Toronto's games this season have had over 6.5 goals 37 of 64 times.

Canadiens Key Stats

  • Montreal has scored the fourth-most goals in the league (220 total, 3.6 per game).
  • The Canadiens rank 24th in goals against, allowing 204 total goals (3.3 per game) in league play.
  • It has the league's ninth-best goal differential at +16.
  • The 45 power-play goals the Canadiens have recorded this season are seventh-best in the NHL (on 179 power-play chances).
  • Montreal has the league's seventh-best power-play conversion rate (25.14%).
  • The Canadiens have scored seven shorthanded goals this season.
  • Montreal kills 76.5% of opponent power plays, the 27th-ranked penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • Montreal wins 50.9% of its faceoffs (11th in NHL).
  • The Canadiens have a 13.5% shooting percentage as a team, which leads the league.

Maple Leafs Key Stats

  • With 201 goals (3.1 per game), Toronto has the league's 16th-ranked offense.
  • The Maple Leafs give up 3.5 goals per game (223 in total), 31st in the league.
  • it has the 23rd-ranked goal differential in the league at -22.
  • With 29 power-play goals (on 150 chances), the Maple Leafs are 29th in the NHL.
  • Toronto has the league's 21st-ranked power-play percentage (19.33%).
  • This season, the Maple Leafs have three shorthanded goals (23rd in league).
  • At 82.82%, Toronto has the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • Toronto wins 55.9% of faceoffs, tops in the NHL.
  • The 11.4% shooting percentage of the Maple Leafs is 12th in the league.

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