Southern vs. UAPB Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - SWAC Tournament

The No. 3 seed Southern Jaguars (15-16, 11-7 SWAC) are favored by 4.5 points in the SWAC Tournament when they play the No. 6 seed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (13-18, 10-8 SWAC) Thursday at Gateway Center Arena, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The winner moves one game closer to claiming a guaranteed place in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup has an over/under set at 154.5 points.

Southern is coming off of an 88-85 victory against Alabama A&M in its most recent game on Thursday. Terrance Dixon Jr.'s team-leading 19 points led Southern in the victory. UAPB is coming off of an 83-48 win against Alcorn State in its most recent outing on Thursday. Quion Williams scored 18 points in UAPB's win, leading the team.

Southern vs. UAPB Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Georgia
• Spread favorite: Southern -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Southern -193
• Moneyline underdog: UAPB +155
• Over/Under: 154.5 points

How to watch Southern vs. UAPB

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Southern vs. UAPB

• A total of 13 of Southern's games this season have gone over Thursday's total of 154.5 points.
• A total of 14 of UAPB's games have finished with a combined score over 154.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 157.2 points per game, 2.7 points more than the point total of 154.5 for this matchup.
• The 159.2 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 4.7 more than the 154.5 over/under in this contest.
• This season, the average over/under for Southern's games is 158.4 points, 3.9 more than the total of 154.5 points set for this contest.
• UAPB's games have an average over/under of 158.1 points this season, 3.6 more points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: Southern vs. UAPB

• Southern has played 28 games, with 12 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Jaguars have been installed as favorites by a 4.5-point margin or more 12 times and are 4-8 ATS in those games.
• In UAPB's 29 games this season, it has 12 wins against the spread.
• The Golden Lions are 7-6 ATS when underdogs by 4.5 points or more this year.
• At home this season, Southern is 3-6 against the spread and 5-4 overall.
• At home, as a 4.5-point favorite or greater, Southern is 3-5 ATS.
• This season in away games, UAPB is 9-11 against the spread and 6-14 overall.
• UAPB is winless ATS (0-1) away from home as 4.5-point underdogs or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Southern vs. UAPB

• This season, Southern has been moneyline favorites 16 times and won nine, or 56.2%, of those games.
• This season, the Jaguars have won seven of their 12 games, or 58.3%, when favored by at least -193 on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 65.9% chance of a victory for Southern.
• UAPB has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in 17 games this year and has walked away with the win five times (29.4%) in those games.
• This year, the Golden Lions have won three of 11 games when listed as at least +155 or worse on the moneyline.
• UAPB has an implied victory probability of 39.2% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.