Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 11

The Missouri State Bears (2-0) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-1) at Great Southern Bank Arena, tipping off at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 11, 2025. The Red Wolves are 2.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 151.5.

In its last game on Saturday, Missouri State earned a 106-57 win over Northwestern Oklahoma State. In Missouri State's win, Keith Palek III led the way with a team-high 20 points (adding seven rebounds and eight assists). Arkansas State heads into this contest following a 90-65 loss to SFA on Friday. Arkansas State got a team-best 17 points from Joey Chammaa in the loss.

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Odds and Game Time

• When: Tuesday, November 11, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, Missouri
• Spread favorite: Missouri State -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Missouri State -142
• Moneyline underdog: Arkansas State +120
• Over/Under: 151.5 points

How to watch Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Missouri State played five games with more than 151.5 points scored, its current matchup's over/under, last year.
• Last season, 13 of Arkansas State's 32 matchups went over 151.5 total points scored.
• The two teams averaged a combined 4.1 fewer points per game (147.4) a season ago than this game's total of 151.5 points.
• Opponents of these teams averaged a combined 141.1 points per game last season, 10.4 fewer than the point total for this matchup.
• Missouri State's average point total in outings last year was 138.8, 12.7 points below the total in this game.
• Arkansas State's games in 2024 averaged an over/under of 149.6 points, 1.9 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

Betting the Spread: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Missouri State covered 17 times in 31 matchups with a spread last season.
• The Bears were favored by 2.5 points or more seven times last season, and covered the spread in one of those matchups.
• Arkansas State won 18 games against the spread last year, while failing to cover or pushing 14 times.
• The Red Wolves covered the spread when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs in three of three chances last season.
• At home last season, Missouri State was 7-7 against the spread and 6-8 overall.
• At home last season, as a 2.5-point favorite or greater, Missouri State had one win ATS (1-5).
• Last year in away games, Arkansas State was 9-3-1 against the spread and 8-5 overall.
• Last year Arkansas State went 5-1 ATS as a 2.5-point underdog or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• Missouri State won 37.5% of the games last season in which it was the moneyline favorite (3-5).
• The Bears had a record of 2-4 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -142 or shorter (33.3%).
• Missouri State has an implied moneyline win probability of 58.7% in this game.
• Last season, Arkansas State was the underdog six times and won three of those games.
• Last season, the Red Wolves won two of their three games when they were an underdog by at least +120 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 45.5% chance of a victory for Arkansas State.