Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - First Round
16 March 2026
The No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (25-7) and the No. 14 North Dakota State Bison (27-7) will meet on Thursday to compete for a spot in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State is favored by 15.5 points in the opening round matchup, which tips off at 4:05 p.m. ET on TNT. Here are the insights you need when filling out your bracket for this 3-14 matchup. The matchup has a point total of 143.5.
In its last time out, Michigan State lost 88-84 to UCLA on Friday. Jeremy Fears Jr. totaled 21 points, one rebound and 13 assists for Michigan State. North Dakota State's most recent outing on Sunday ended in a 70-62 win against North Dakota. Damari Wheeler-Thomas totaled 19 points, six rebounds and one assist for North Dakota State.
Michigan State vs. North Dakota State Odds and Game Time
- When: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York
- Spread favorite: Michigan State -15.5
- Moneyline favorite: Michigan State -2174
- Moneyline underdog: North Dakota State +1005
- Over/Under: 143.5 points
How to watch Michigan State vs. North Dakota State
Betting the Over/Under: Michigan State vs. North Dakota State
- Michigan State and its opponents have combined to outscore Thursday's total (143.5 points) 16 times this season.
- In North Dakota State's 31 games this season, 21 finished with more combined points than Thursday's total of 143.5.
- The Spartans average 78.9 points per game against the Bison's 80.7, amounting to 16.1 points over the contest's point total of 143.5.
- This game's total is 5.5 fewer points than the 138 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
- This season, the average over/under for Michigan State's games is 147.3 points, 3.8 more than the total of 143.5 points set for this contest.
- The over/under for this matchup is 6.8 points lower than the average over/under in North Dakota State's games this season of 150.3.
Betting the Spread: Michigan State vs. North Dakota State
- Michigan State is 16-16-0 against the spread this season.
- This season, the Spartans have an ATS record of 3-6 in their nine games as a favorite of 15.5 points or more.
- In North Dakota State's 31 games this season, it has 18 wins against the spread.
- At home this season, Michigan State is 15-2 overall and 8-9 against the spread.
- At home, Michigan State has two wins ATS (2-5) as a 15.5-point favorite or more.
- This season away from home, North Dakota State is 9-6 against the spread and 10-5 overall.
Betting the Moneyline: Michigan State vs. North Dakota State
- This season, Michigan State has been moneyline favorites 26 times and won 23, or 88.5%, of those games.
- The Spartans have entered nine games this season favored by -2174 or more, and won each of those games.
- Michigan State has a 95.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- North Dakota State has been victorious in two of the six contests it has been chosen as a moneyline underdog in this season.
- The Bison have yet to play a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +1005.
- North Dakota State has an implied victory probability of 9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
