Bills vs. Patriots Week 4 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Buffalo Bills (3-0) will be trying to extend a three-game winning streak against the New England Patriots (1-2). The Bills are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -6.5). The game has an over/under of 50.5 points.

The Bills have the 21st-ranked defense this season (26.0 points allowed per game), and they've been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking best with 33.7 points per game. The Patriots rank second-worst in points per game (12.0), but they've been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking sixth in the NFL with 17.0 points surrendered per contest.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• City: Orchard Park, New York
• Venue: New Highmark Stadium
• Total: 50.5 points
• Spread: Bills -6.5
• Moneyline: Bills (-305), Patriots (+245)

How to watch Bills vs. Patriots

• TV Channel: CBS

Betting the Over/Under: Bills vs. Patriots

• Bills games have had a combined total of more than 50.5 points twice this season (over three outings).
• This season, games featuring the Bills have gone over the point total twice.
• The Patriots have yet to play a game this season that ended with more than 50.5 combined points scored.
• So far this year, no New England game has gone over the point total.
• The two teams average 45.7 points per game combined, 4.8 fewer than this matchup's over/under.
• Opponents of these two teams average 43 points per game combined, 7.5 fewer than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Bills vs. Patriots

• Buffalo has compiled a perfect 3-0-0 record against the spread this season.
• Buffalo has been favored by 6.5 points or more once this season, and covered the spread.
• The Patriots have a record of 1-1-1 against the spread this year.

Betting the Moneyline: Bills vs. Patriots

• Buffalo has not yet lost when playing as the moneyline favorite this season, going 3-0.
• The Patriots have lost both games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Buffalo has played as a moneyline favorite of -305 or shorter in just one game this season, which it won.
• New England has not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +245 odds on them winning this game.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Bills have an implied win probability of 75.3%.

Dunkel Prediction for Bills vs. Patriots

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