Aces vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - July 11

The Phoenix Mercury (8-15) will look to Kahleah Copper (fourth in WNBA, 20.8 points per game) going up against A'ja Wilson (first in league, 26.1) and the Las Vegas Aces (16-6) on Saturday, July 11, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The game begins at 6 p.m. ET on Peacock, NBC Sports, The Spot-Vegas 34, and AZFamily.

Las Vegas enters this game following an 88-80 win against Portland. The Aces' leading scorer was Wilson, who wound up with 32 points, 10 rebounds, two steals and two blocks.

In its most recent game, Phoenix fell to Indiana, 92-89, at home. Its top performers were Copper (22 PTS, 52.9 FG%, 3-6 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (22 PTS, 7 AST, 55.6 FG%).

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Aces vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Snag a look below at the latest betting lines for the Aces-Mercury game.

• Favorite: Aces (-9.5)
• Total: 171.5
• Aces Moneyline: -481
• Mercury Moneyline: +350

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Aces Betting Insights

• The Aces have an implied moneyline win probability of 82.8% in this contest.
• Las Vegas has won 72.7% of its games this season when favored on the moneyline (16-6).
• The Aces are 12-10-0 ATS this season.
• Las Vegas and its opponents have gone over 171.5 combined points in 11 of 22 games this season.
• The average total in Aces games this year is 174.0, 2.5 more than this matchup's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The moneyline for this contest implies a 22.2% chance of a victory for the Mercury.
• This season, Phoenix has been the underdog 14 times and won four, or 28.6%, of those games.
• The Mercury have put together a 9-14-0 record against the spread this year.
• Phoenix has played nine games this season that ended with a combined score higher than 171.5 points.
• The average over/under for Mercury matchups this season is 169.1, 2.4 fewer points than this game's point total.

Key Stats for Aces vs. Mercury

• The 89.9 points per game Las Vegas records are just 4.2 more points than Phoenix gives up (85.7).
• When the Aces score more than 85.7 points, they are 13-2.
• Las Vegas has been worse offensively at home, where it scores 87.9 points per game, compared to on the road, where it records 91.5. Defensively, it is worse when playing at home, where it gives up 88.5 points per game, versus on the road, where it allows its opponents to score 84.2.
• Phoenix puts up an average of 83.7 points per game, only 2.4 fewer points than the 86.1 Las Vegas gives up.
• When they score more than 86.1 points, the Mercury are 6-4.
• At home Phoenix averages 86 points per game, 4.5 more than away (81.5). On defense, it concedes 89.4 points per game at home, seven more than on the road (82.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.