Aces vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - July 11

A pair of the league's best scorers square off -- A'ja Wilson (first, 26.1 points per game) and Kahleah Copper (fourth, 20.8) -- when the Las Vegas Aces (16-6) host the Phoenix Mercury (8-15) on Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 6 p.m. ET on Peacock, NBC Sports, The Spot-Vegas 34, and AZFamily.

Las Vegas picked up an 88-80 win versus Portland last time out. The squad was led by Wilson's 32 points, 10 rebounds, two steals and two blocks and Jackie Young's 19 points, 11 assists and three steals.

Phoenix fell to Indiana 92-89 at home in its last game. Its top scorers were Copper (22 PTS, 52.9 FG%, 3-6 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (22 PTS, 7 AST, 55.6 FG%).

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Aces vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Grab a look below at the latest betting lines for the Aces-Mercury game.

• Favorite: Aces (-7.5)
• Total: 168.5
• Aces Moneyline: -420
• Mercury Moneyline: +310

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Aces Betting Insights

• Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Aces' implied win probability is 80.8%.
• Las Vegas has put together a 16-6 record in games when it was listed as a moneyline favorite (winning 72.7% of those games).
• The Aces have put together a 12-10-0 record against the spread this season.
• Las Vegas and its opponents have scored more than 168.5 points in 12 of 22 games this season.
• The average total in Aces outings this year is 174.0, 5.5 more points than this game's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The Mercury have a 24.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• This season, Phoenix has won four out of the 14 games, or 28.6%, in which it has been the underdog.
• The Mercury have won nine games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 14 times.
• Phoenix's games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 168.5 points in 10 of 23 outings.
• The Mercury's average game total this season has been 169.1, 0.6 more points than this matchup's over/under.

Key Stats for Aces vs. Mercury

• The 89.9 points per game Las Vegas averages are just 4.2 more points than Phoenix gives up (85.7).
• When the Aces score more than 85.7 points, they are 13-2.
• Las Vegas' offense has been much worse in home games (87.9 PPG) compared to its play on the road (91.5 PPG). Similarly, its defense has been worse in home games (88.5 PPG allowed) when compared to road games (84.2 PPG allowed).
• Phoenix scores an average of 83.7 points per game, only 2.4 fewer points than the 86.1 Las Vegas gives up to opponents.
• When they score more than 86.1 points, the Mercury are 6-4.
• At home Phoenix scores 86 points per game, 4.5 more than away (81.5). On defense, it gives up 89.4 points per game at home, seven more than on the road (82.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.