2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview /Prop Bets
11 May 2021
The PGA makes its move to a newer course on the year for the Byron Nelson tournament playing at the TPC Craig Ranch in Texas. This course has hosted several name brand tournaments in the past, but this marks the first time it holds a four round tournament for the PGA Tour.
Tournament Details
Date: May 13–16, 2021
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Watch on: CBS, GOLF
Purse: $8,100,000
Betting Overview
Since this course will be relatively new to many golfers, it will be difficult to guess what to expect. Every time that the PGA announces a new course to the calendar, it usually yields big time scores.
With that being said, you want to look at players that typically connect on birdies and do not miss putts. Below you will find compelling betting options.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-19.181) and Jon Rahm (-22.185) could disrupt this tournament with their high level of play. Fitzpatrick has been so close to nailing a win he can almost taste it.
Rahm comes in ranked third, even as high as the number one ranked golfer in the world. His consistency has proved to be beneficial in a stacked tournament like this.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
1 Jordan Spieth -11.950
2 Hideki Matsuyama -15.614
3 Brooks Koepka -16.662
4 Sam Burns -18.115
5 Matthew Fitzpatrick -19.181
6 Bryson DeChambeau -19.214
7 Marc Leishman -19.368
8 Daniel Berger -21.342
9 Jon Rahm -22.185
10 Matt Kuchar -22.582
*index is subject to changes
Golfers That Could Win
Hideki Matsuyama (-15.614) makes his first appearance after a well earned Masters victory. He arguably could not be at his best as compared to other golfers, with a few consecutive events coming into this one.
Marc Leishman (-19.368) has shown solid iron play and has a Zurich Classic win. He has solid performances along the way to make this a competitive tournament.
Fans are still waiting for Brooks Koepka (-16.662) to come in and steal a win like his former self. This would be the perfect opportunity for him to get back on track and to do it against some top talent.
Potential Winning Pick
Scottie Scheffler (-24.112) comes into play here ranked as the 22nd best golfer in the world and the 14th best option for the Dunkel Index. His odds are somewhat overshadowed by the bigger names here.
However, other golfers need to keep an eye on him, as he had a real shot at claiming a victory here. His resume for this season boasts a seventh place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and a fifth place finish at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession.
In those events, he delayed very solid birdie putts and was able to maintain his accuracy throughout the tournaments. Scheffler is a solid betting option to look into.
Prop Bets
Top 30 Finish: Talor Gooch (+138)
The Oklahoma native bounced back after missing the cut at the Valspar Championship with a Top 30 finish last week at the Wells Fargo Championship.
It’s been part of a solid stretch of golf for Gooch as he’s made the cut in 6 of his last 7 events that included a 5th-place finish at the Players Championship and 12th at the Genesis Invitational. His scoring average has dropped to 70.426, which ranks him 35th on Tour.
He missed the cut the last time he was at the Byron Nelson in 2018, but Gooch looks ready to move beyond that this week. Rated No. 21 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Gooch (+138) to finish in the Top 30 again this week.
Top 40 Finish: Charl Schwartzel (-120)
The former Masters winner has reemerged as a contender on the Tour this year. Schwartzel has made 6 straight cuts and finished in the Top 25 in each of his last 3 events, including a 14th last week at the Wells Fargo.
The 36-year-old South African has shown decent length off the tee (No. 48 at 302.0), but his accuracy has been a struggle (No. 143 at 56.94%). This has hurt him in the past at the Byron Nelson, where he failed to make the cut in 2017 and his best finish is 58th.
But we like the way Schwartzel’s game is trending right now. Rated No. 29 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll be a little more cautious with Schwartzel and take him (-120) to finish in the Top 40.
Top 40 Finish: Ben Martin (+140)
The 33-year-old South Carolina native doesn’t have the same problem as Schwartzel as he’s now ranked 40th in driving accuracy. That helped him post one of his best finishes of the year at last week’s Wells Fargo where he came in 11th.
On the week, Martin was tied for 6th in fairways hit and tied for 16h in greens in regulation.
The 9-year Tour veteran now has two Top 20 finishes in his last 5 events – the other was a 9th at the Corales Puntacana.
Rated No. 26 in the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Martin’s consistency (+140) to keep him in the Top 40 this week.
Make Cut: Russell Knox (-200)
Knox looks to have bounced back from a tough stretch has saw him miss three straight cuts at the Honda Classic, Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage.
The 35-year-old Scot snapped out of it with a 21st at the Valspar Championship and then followed that up with an 18th at Quail Hollow.
Accuracy has been his strength this year with a No. 57 ranking in driving accuracy percentage (63.95) and No. 9 in greens in regulation percentage (70.52).
Rated No. 35 in the Dunkel Index, Knox looks to be one of the best values (-200) on the board to make the cut this week.
Be sure to check out all of The Dunkel Index's daily picks.
