Würth 400 Betting Preview
28 April 2023
Crashes and caution flags were huge factors all weekend at Talladega. 23XI Racing-Toyota’s Bubba Wallace spun out and caused a final caution flag after the white flag had waved, leaving Richard Childress Racing-Chevorlet’s Kyle Busch in first place to cruise onto Victory Lane.
This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series leaves Talladega and heads to Dover Motor Speedway, the legendary concrete track dubbed the “Moster Mile.”
The Overwhelming Favorites: Hendrick Motorsports
While Hendrick Motorsports-Chevorlet is among the betting favorites every weekend, all four of the team’s drivers have excellent chances to win at Dover. Hendrick’s has won the previous two races and finished 1-2-3-4 in 2021.
Alex Bowman might not be at the top of the Dunkel Index ratings for the Würth 400, but he has been excellent at Dover in recent races. Bowman has one race (2021) win and three top-five finishes in his last four races at Dover.
Kyle Larson (262.377) has two race wins and to sub-30th place finished in his last four races. In two races at Dover since February 2020, Larson has one top-five and two top-ten finishes, with an average finishing spot of 5.0.
Chase Elliott (257.587) is in his third race back from injury, looking better each time he is in the car. Elliott won stage one at Talladega and narrowly edged out by Aric Almirola for the stage two win before being caught up in caution flag chaos. Despite this, Elliott almost scored his third top-ten finish in four races this season, ultimately finishing 12th at Talladega.
Elliott has one race win and three top-five finishes in his last four races at Dover.
William Byron (254.998) might not have the race wins of his teammates at Dover, but he has two of Hendrick’s four wins in 2023, winning in Las Vegas and Phoenix. Byron has two top-five finishes in his last four races at Dover.
The Toyota and Ford Contenders
Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Christopher Bell (255.390) is the current Cup Series Drivers’ Championship leader but doesn’t have the best recent record at Dover. Bell has one top-five finish in his last four races, with an average finishing position of 18.5. Bell finished eighth at Talladega, his seventh top-ten finish this season.
Bell’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr. (263.337) holds two Cup Series wins (2007, 2019) and an Xfinity Series win in 2005 at Dover. Truex Jr has two top-five finishes, with an average finishing position of 8.8 in his last four races on the Monster Mile.
While there are more Fords in the field than Toyotas, Ford’s last win at Dover was in 2018, and Ford has won 2 of the previous 12 editions of this race.
If anyone will break that streak and bring Ford a win at Dover, it’ll be either Ryan Blaney (258.519) or Joey Logano (262.158), the latter of which had great success in the Xfinity Series at Dover, winning in 2012 and 2013.
Würth 400 Betting Pick
The Dunkel Index is picking William Byron (254.998) to get his first win at Dover and third win this season.
Keep up with your latest NASCAR news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.
All Media on this page by Associated Press.
