Virginia vs. SMU Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Jan. 17

The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers (15-2, 4-1 ACC) visit the SMU Mustangs (13-4, 2-2 ACC) at Moody Coliseum, starting at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 17, 2026. The Mustangs are 1.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has an over/under set at 153.5 points.

Virginia is coming off of a 79-70 win against Louisville in its most recent outing on Tuesday. In Virginia's win, Malik Thomas led the way with a team-high 19 points (adding five rebounds and three assists). SMU came out on top in its most recent matchup 77-76 against Virginia Tech on Wednesday. In SMU's win, Kevin Miller led the way with 24 points (adding four rebounds and six assists).

Virginia vs. SMU Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 12 p.m. ET
• Where: Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas
• Spread favorite: Virginia -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: Virginia -135
• Moneyline underdog: SMU +113
• Over/Under: 153.5 points

How to watch Virginia vs. SMU

• TV Channel: ESPN2
• Live Stream: Fubo
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Virginia vs. SMU

• Virginia and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday's total (153.5 points) six times this season.
• This season, 14 of SMU's games have finished with a combined score higher than 153.5 points.
• The total for the matchup of 153.5 is 19.6 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Cavaliers (84.7 points per game) and the Mustangs (88.4 points per game).
• The 144 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score on average this season are 9.5 fewer than the 153.5 over/under in this contest.
• This season the average over/under for Virginia's games is 151.7 points, 1.8 fewer than the over/under of 153.5 set for this contest.
• The over/under for this contest is 11.9 points lower than the average over/under in SMU's games this season (165.4 points).

Betting the Spread: Virginia vs. SMU

• Virginia has played 17 games, with 11 wins against the spread.
• The Cavaliers have an ATS record of 8-6 in their 14 games as a favorite of 1.5 points or more so far this season.
• SMU has played 17 games, with eight wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Mustangs have been installed as underdogs by a 1.5-point margin or more six times and are 3-2-1 ATS in those games.
• SMU is 5-6 against the spread, and 11-0 overall, at home.
• This season, as a 1.5-point underdog or greater at home, SMU is 4-6 ATS.
• In away games, Virginia is 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread.
• Virginia is winless ATS (0-1) away from home as 1.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Virginia vs. SMU

• This season, Virginia has been moneyline favorites 12 times and won 10, or 83.3%, of those games.
• The Cavaliers have a record of 10-2 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -135 on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for Virginia.
• SMU has been a moneyline underdog in six games this season and has come away with the win two times (33.3%) in those contests.
• This season, the Mustangs have been a moneyline underdog of -135 or more three times, losing every contest.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies SMU has a 46.9% chance of walking away with the win.