Troy vs. Southern Miss Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 14

The Troy Trojans (17-9, 9-4 Sun Belt) visit the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (13-14, 6-8 Sun Belt) at Reed Green Coliseum, starting at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 14, 2026. The Trojans are 5.5-point favorites in the game. The matchup has an over/under set at 144.5 points.

In its last time out, Troy lost 74-62 to Texas State on Wednesday. Victor Valdes recorded 22 points, four rebounds and two assists for Troy. Southern Miss is coming off of an 84-78 loss to South Alabama in its most recent game on Thursday. Southern Miss got a team-leading 25 points from Tylik Weeks in the loss.

Troy vs. Southern Miss Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 8:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Reed Green Coliseum in Hattiesburg, Mississippi
• Spread favorite: Troy -5.5
• Moneyline favorite: Troy -222
• Moneyline underdog: Southern Miss +178
• Over/Under: 144.5 points

How to watch Troy vs. Southern Miss

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Troy vs. Southern Miss

• This season, 14 of Troy's 24 games have gone over Saturday's over/under of 144.5 points.
• There have been 14 Southern Miss games that ended with a combined score higher than 144.5 points this season.
• The over/under for the game of 144.5 is 11.3 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Trojans (82.3 points per game) and the Golden Eagles (73.5 points per game).
• This matchup's over/under is 4.0 fewer points than the 148.5 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• This season, the average over/under for Troy's games is 157.2 points, 12.7 more than the total of 144.5 points set for this contest.
• The over/under for this matchup is 2.6 points lower than the average over/under in Southern Miss' games this season (147.1 points).

Betting the Spread: Troy vs. Southern Miss

• Against the spread, Troy is 14-10-0 this season.
• The Trojans have an ATS record of 5-5 in their 10 games when favored by 5.5 points or more so far this season.
• In Southern Miss' 25 games this season, it has 10 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Golden Eagles have an against-the-spread record of 3-3 in their six games as an underdog of 5.5 points or more.
• At home this year, Southern Miss is 3-6 against the spread and 6-3 overall.
• At home, as a 5.5-point underdog or more, Southern Miss is winless ATS (0-3).
• In away games, Troy is 8-5 against the spread, and 8-5 overall.
• Troy has two wins ATS (2-1) as 5.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Troy vs. Southern Miss

• Troy has been the moneyline favorite in 16 games this season and won 10 (62.5%) of those contests.
• The Trojans are 7-3 this season when entering a game favored by -222 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 68.9% chance of a victory for Troy.
• Southern Miss has been a moneyline underdog in 17 games this season and has come away with the win four times (23.5%) in those contests.
• The Golden Eagles have yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +178 or worse on the moneyline this season.
• Southern Miss has an implied victory probability of 36% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Troy vs. Southern Miss

• Pick ATS: Southern Miss (+ 5.5)
• Pick OU: Over (144.5)
  
• Prediction: Southern Miss 74 - Troy 73