Troy vs. Arkansas State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Jan. 17

The Troy Trojans (12-6, 5-1 Sun Belt) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (12-6, 4-2 Sun Belt) at Trojan Arena, beginning at 4:33 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 17, 2026. The Trojans are 3-point favorites in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 163 points.

Troy enters this contest following a 91-65 victory against Southern Miss on Wednesday. In Troy's win, Cobi Campbell led the way with a team-high 30 points (adding two rebounds and zero assists). Arkansas State is coming off of a 91-87 OT loss to South Alabama in its last outing on Thursday. Royal Blue Smith put up 18 points, four rebounds and three assists for Arkansas State.

Troy vs. Arkansas State Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 4:33 p.m. ET
• Where: Trojan Arena in Troy, Alabama
• Spread favorite: Troy -3
• Moneyline favorite: Troy -155
• Moneyline underdog: Arkansas State +130
• Over/Under: 163 points

How to watch Troy vs. Arkansas State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Troy vs. Arkansas State

• This season, Troy and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday's over/under of 163 points seven times.
• This season, eight games Arkansas State has played finished with a combined score higher than 163 points.
• The Trojans average 86.2 points per game against the Red Wolves' 83.5, totaling 6.7 points over the matchup's over/under of 163.
• The 155 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score combined this season are 8.0 less than the 163-point over/under in this contest.
• This season the average over/under for Troy's games is 162.5 points, 0.5 fewer than the over/under of 163 set for this contest.
• Arkansas State's games have an average over/under of 162.2 points this season, 0.8 fewer points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Against the spread, Troy is 10-6-0 this year.
• The Trojans have been favored by 3 points or more eight times this season and are 5-3 ATS in those contests.
• Arkansas State has 10 wins against the spread in 16 games this year.
• The Red Wolves have covered the spread twice this season when underdogs by 3 points or more (in three chances).
• Troy is 4-1 overall, and 4-1 against the spread, at home.
• Troy is 4-1 ATS as a 3-point favorite or greater at home.
• Arkansas State is 6-4 against the spread, and 5-5 overall, away from home.
• On the road, Arkansas State has two wins ATS (2-1) as 3-point underdogs or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Troy has entered the game as moneyline favorites nine times this season and won six of those games.
• The Trojans have a record of 6-2 in games where bookmakers favor them by at least -155 on the moneyline.
• Troy has a 60.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Arkansas State has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in four games this year and has walked away with the win two times (50%) in those games.
• The Red Wolves have a mark of 1-2 in contests where bookmakers give them odds of +130 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Arkansas State has a 43.5% chance of walking away with the win.