Toyota Owners 400 2023 Betting Preview
31 March 2023
23XI Racing-Toyota’s Tyler Reddick (246.434) was on point last weekend, dominating the NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Grand Prix and Circuit of the Americas. While his impressive win in Austin win makes Reddick an instant favorite for future street circuits, NASCAR leaves street circuit racing to the side, returning to oval racing and the best short track America has to offer: Richmond Raceway.
We’ll review the short-track successes of the NASCAR Cup grid before giving you the Dunkel Index’s pick to win the Toyota Owners 400.
Race Winners at Richmond Among the Favorites
Richard Childress Racing-Chevrolet’s Kyle Busch (246.845) is the second-winningest Cup Series driver at Richmond, winning at Richmond five times (2009-2012, 2018), and among the favorites to win and finish in the top ten. On short tracks in February 2020, Busch only has three top-five finishes but 11 top-ten finishes in 15 races.
While we don’t have Hendrick Motorsports-Chevrolet’s Alex Bowman finishing in the top ten, he won at Richmond in 2021 and has two race wins and seven top-ten finishes in 14 short track races since February 2020.
Stewart-Haas Racing-Ford’s Kevin Harvick (249.982) won at Richmond in 2013 and has two short-track wins and eight top-ten finishes in 15 races since 2020.
Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Denny Hamlin (252.564) won in Richmond in 2022 and has one race win and eight top-ten finishes on short tracks in the past 15 races.
Byron and Two Short Track Specialists
Hendrick Motorsports William Byron (250.0344) is someone to watch throughout the season and has the potential to win at Richmond. After scoring back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix, Byron showed he is a real threat on any circuit, battling with Reddick for the race lead before caution flags and overtime dropped him to fifth.
Byron has one race win and ten top-ten finishes on short tracks since February 2020.
However, we’ve got two short-track specialists to consider as potential winners in Richmond.
Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Christopher Bell (258.205) has three top-five finishes this season, alongside one race win and eight top-ten finishes on short tracks since 2020.
The biggest threat to the Dunkel Index’s pick to win the Toyota Owners 400 is Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Martin Truex Jr. (246.775). Truex Jr. won this race in 2019, claimed the win at the 2023 Clash at the Coliseum, and has three race wins and nine top-ten finishes in 15 short track races since 2023.
Chastain to Win and Regain the Championship Lead
Trackhouse Racing-Chevrolet’s Ross Chastain (245.905) is currently second in the NASCAR Cup Series Drivers’ Championship standings and is the Dunkel Index’s pick to win the Toyota Owners 400 and at Richmond for the first time.
Chastain hasn’t been excellent on short tracks recently, scoring two top-five and four top-ten finishes in 10 race starts. However, Chastain has two top-five finishes this season and won stages 1 and 2 in Fontana before dropping to third. With the win in Richmond, Chastain will likely vault back into the lead of the Drivers’ standings.
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