Tour Championship 2022 Betting Preview/Prop Picks
23 August 2022
The PGA Tour wraps up its 2022 campaign this weekend at East Lake in Atlanta for the Tour Championship. This is a somewhat controversial tournament, with the field featuring just 30 players and with staggered scoring that already has awarded top-ranked Scottie Scheffler with a 10-stroke lead.
Patrick Cantlay went wire-to-wire here last season in the same spot Scheffler is in, starting with a 10-stroke advantage. The Dunkel Index doesn’t like Scheffler to repeat that feat, though, due largely in part to his 13th place average finish in two career events at East Lake - which isn’t that great in a 30-person field.
Here is who the Dunkel Index likes this week.
Tony Finau -29.403
Finau cooled off last week with a 28th-place finish at the BMW Championship. It’s possible that a grueling stretch of playing three of the last four tournaments of the regular season is catching up to Finau, but he still won two of those (3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic) and had a T5 at the FedEx St Jude Championship to start the playoffs.
Finau starts at -4, so he’s already got a considerable margin to make up on Scheffler, and he’s also never finished in the top five in five career trips to East Lake.
Patrick Cantlay -31.914
Cantlay picked up the win last week at the BMW Championship and has a chance to be the first-ever back-to-back FedEx Cup winner. He’s up to #2 in the rankings, which means he starts just two strokes back from Scheffler and went wire-to-wire last year at East Lake.
Cameron Smith -32.518
Smith has one advantage over the field here in that he’s well rested after sitting out the BMW Championship last week with a hip injury. It’s amazing the healing powers that an $18 million prize has.
Smith has a great opportunity to go out as the ultimate heel as this weekend’s tournament is expected to be his last as a member of the PGA Tour, with a move to LIV seeming imminent.
Will Zalatoris -33.090
Bettors will likely avoid Zalatoris this weekend, mostly due to his health being in question. He had to withdraw from the BMW Championship last Saturday with a back injury and may end up not even finishing at East Lake in order to get healthy for the President’s Cup next month.
If Zalatoris’ back has healed, he’s got a great chance at being in contention this weekend, starting just three strokes back from Scheffler and being in top form after a win at the FedEx St Jude Championship two weeks ago.
Xander Schauffele -36.254
Schauffele loves East Lake, winning here in 2017 and never finishing worse than seventh in five career events here. That stretch includes runner-ups in 2019 and 2020, and he comes in with nice momentum after a third-place finish at the BMW Championship.
Schauffele was 57th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but that was also his first event in nearly a month after a T15 at the Open Championship in St. Andrews.
Prop Picks
Top 10 Finish: Sungjae Im (-110)
While Im slipped a bit following three straight 2nd-place finishes, he still racked up another Top 20 finish with his tie for 15th at the BMW Championship. Im ranks No. 5 in eagles (94.5 holes per) and No. 10 in greens in regulation percentage (70.37%).
Rated No. 9 in this week’s Dunkel Index, take Im (-110) to continue to finish strong with a Top 10 finish in Atlanta.
Top 10 Finish: Cameron Smith (-125)
After withdrawing from last week’s BMW Championship because of hip discomfort, Smith looks ready to return to the course this week and conclude a season that has seen him finish in the Top 10 in seven of the 17 tournaments he’s entered. Smith ranks No. 1 in birdie average (4.69) and No. 2 in scoring average (69.090).
Rated No. 3 in this week’s Dunkel Index, take Smith (-125) to bounce back this week and finish in the Top 10.
Tournament Matchup: Max Homa (-105) OVER Viktor Hovland
Homa finished in a tie for 23rd at the BMW Championship last week, which has his best finish since a tie for 16th at the Scottish Open. He does have two wins under his belt this season at the Fortinet Championship and Well Fargo Championship. Homa ranks No. 25 in scoring average (70.055).
Hovland was red hot at the start of the season that included a win at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. But he has not been as consistent down the stretch and has finished in the Top 10 in only five of the 20 events he’s played. Hovland ranks No. 28 in scoring average (70.182).
With Homa rated No. 16 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Hovland at No. 17, these two should be looking to finish on a strong note, but take Homa (-105) to have the edge in this matchup at East Lake Golf Course.
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