Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Betting Preview/Prop Picks
04 October 2022
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 13.449; Boston 16.345
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston b 3; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game as favorites, although they suffered a loss yesterday. It was the first game of the three-game series, but still, they lost 4-3.
This marked the third-straight loss for a team that was once second in the AL East. They’ll attempt to regain some ground with a win over the Boston Red Sox tonight.
Beating the Red Sox is much easier said than done, it turns out. This season, although their record is under .500, they’ve beaten some impressive teams.
Prior to their win over the Rays, however, the Red Sox went on a three-game losing streak. All of those games were lost to the Toronto Blue Jays, another AL East rival. Boston looks to continue its winning streak today.
Tampa Bay Rays: Rays will send out their ace Jeffrey Springs
Having a strong starting pitcher to face Boston’s lineup is a step in the right direction. By sending out the 9-4 Jeffrey Springs, the Rays are in a good position tonight.
Springs has an ERA of 2.45 over the course of 132.1 innings. In that time, he’s thrown 141 strikeouts and allowed only 14 home runs. With him on the mound, the Rays win the pitching battle.
An area of concern for the Rays, however, is at the plate. This season, the Rays have a team batting average of .240, which isn’t bad but not as good as Boston.
If they want to get a win on the road tonight, they’ll need to be better at the plate. They rank 20th in Major League Baseball in on-base percentage (.308). Finding ways to get on base will ensure at least a few runs.
Boston Red Sox: Red Sox will again rely on batting
If there’s something that Boston needs to pursue in the offseason, it’s pitching. They don’t have very many good starting pitchers and definitely don’t have an ace.
Getting the start tonight is Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA of 4.05 and a 5-3 record. Eovaldi doesn’t quite match up to someone like Jeffrey Springs. This is something that needs to be addressed this offseason.
Still, they’ve found ways to win games because of their batters. As a team, the Boston Red Sox rank third overall with a batting average of .257. They have an on-base percentage that ranks sixth in the league (.320).
They also have a slugging percentage of .409 which ranks eighth overall. The question is, can their batting yet again bring them another win at home?
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Pick
This is a tough call since each of these teams do something remarkably well. For the Red Sox, it’s batting, establishing themselves as one of the best in the league. Prior to last night’s win, the Red Sox had lost four straight games to the Rays, but they finally broke that skid.
Because of this and who they have on the mound, we’re going to go with the Red Sox at +105. They have a pitcher and team that are trying to finish strong, and would like to continue to frustrate the Rays, who clinched a wild-card spot but are fighting for positioning.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Boston +105, UNDER
Prop Picks
Tampa Bay (+100) UNDER 3.5 Runs
Tampa Bay is averaging 4.14 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 21 in MLB. That average decreases to 1.67 runs per 9 innings over the Rays’ last three games. Scores have gone UNDER in five of the Rays’ last six games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Boston win by the score of 4-1, take the Rays (+100) to finish UNDER 3.5 runs scored versus the Red Sox.
Nathan Eovaldi (-145) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Tampa Bay is averaging 8.03 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 18 in MLB. That average decreases to 5.00 hits per 9 innings over the Rays’ last three games.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas run total, take Eovaldi (-145) to finish UNDER 5.5 hits allowed against Tampa Bay.
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