St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview/Prop Picks
27 July 2022
The St. Louis Cardinals were dealt a 10-3 loss by the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. This loss marked the Cardinals' second straight loss and dropped their record to 51-47.
Although their record is still 51-47, and they rank second in the NL Central, they can't afford to lose. If they do, the gap between them and the Milwaukee Brewers will continue to widen.
The Toronto Blue Jays are second in their division as well, well behind the New York Yankees. Right now, the Yankees have an 11.5-game lead over the Blue Jays. It's unlikely that the Blue Jays will be able to catch up, but not impossible.
Toronto has won seven games in a row, including last night, and is looking for another. Can SP Kevin Gausman deliver one tonight?
St. Louis Cardinals: St. Louis needs help to get back on track
The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in an interesting spot. After losing two games in a row, it's not time to get desperate, but they definitely need a win. Last night, the Cardinals scored a run in the first inning but then gave up three immediately.
In the sixth inning, St. Louis allowed the Blue Jays to score five runs. With this kind of performance, it's not surprising they lost.
Getting the start for the Cardinals today is Adam Wainwright, who is 6-8 as a starter. Wainwright's ERA of 3.40 slightly makes up for his under .500 record.
The Cardinals excel at the plate; however, they aren't as good as the Blue Jays. As a team, St. Louis has a batting average of .251, which ranks ninth overall. They have a pretty strong on-base percentage too.
Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman gets the nod tonight
Kevin Gausman has a 7-7 record as a starter this season with an ERA of 3.00. Over the span of 99 innings, he's thrown 116 strikeouts. Although he may not be the Blue Jays' best pitcher, he's definitely in the top five of the group.
Tonight, he'll need to focus his energy on slowing the production of the Cardinals batters. This is similar to what Jose Berrios did yesterday.
The main problem the Blue Jays will run into is how quickly the Cardinals can get started. We saw this yesterday where they scored in the first inning. The good news for the Blue Jays in that game was they responded immediately.
They were able to do this because, as a team, they have the best batting average in MLB (.268). Their on-base percentage is second at .332.
St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick
There are a few things that each of these teams do rather well. The Cardinals are great at putting runs on the board, and Toronto is great at responding.
The Cardinals come into this game as +205 underdogs, giving us great odds. They can't stay down for long, and after last night's loss, we expect them to come out swinging.
This game is likely going to be a close one, with the Cardinals edging it out in the end. Because of what happened yesterday, we're also going to take the over as well. The total has gone over in five of Toronto's last seven games.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +205, OVER
Prop Picks
St. Louis (-140) OVER 2.5 Runs
St. Louis is averaging 4.66 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 8 in the league, with a team BA of .251, which ranks No. 9. Scores have gone OVER in 20 of the Cardinals’ last 26 games versus AL East teams.
With Dunkel predicting a St. Louis victory by the score of 6-5, take the Cardinals (-140) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 2.5 runs against the Blue Jays.
Kevin Gausman (-165) OVER 1.5 Earned Runs
Gausman has allowed 33 earned runs in 99.0 innings pitched this season for an ERA of 3.00. The Toronto right hander’s ERA increases to 3.67 (20 earned runs in 49.0 IP) at home.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas total, take Gausman (-165) to finish OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed versus the Cardinals.
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