SFA vs. Incarnate Word Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Jan. 12

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (13-3, 6-1 Southland) host the Incarnate Word Cardinals (8-8, 3-4 Southland) at William R. Johnson Coliseum, tipping off at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, January 12, 2026. The Cardinals are 8.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has a point total of 141.5.

SFA came out on top in its most recent matchup 85-67 against Houston Christian on Saturday. In SFA's win, Keon Thompson led the way with a team-high 16 points (adding two rebounds and three assists). Incarnate Word heads into this game on the heels of a 63-51 loss to Lamar on Saturday. Tahj Staveskie scored a team-high 11 points for Incarnate Word in the loss.

SFA vs. Incarnate Word Odds and Game Time

• When: Monday, January 12, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: William R. Johnson Coliseum in Huntsville, Texas
• Spread favorite: SFA -8.5
• Moneyline favorite: SFA -441
• Moneyline underdog: Incarnate Word +338
• Over/Under: 141.5 points

How to watch SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• This season, SFA's games have seen a combined score higher than this game's 141.5-point total six times.
• Seven of Incarnate Word's games have ended with a combined score higher than 141.5 points this season.
• The point total for the matchup of 141.5 is 16.8 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Lumberjacks (79.0 points per game) and the Cardinals (79.3 points per game).
• This matchup's point total is 4.3 fewer points than the 137.2 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• On average, SFA has had a 144.1-point over/under in its games this season, 2.6 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
• Incarnate Word's games have an average over/under of 151.3 points this season, 9.8 more points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• SFA has 12 wins against the spread in 14 games this season.
• So far this season, the Lumberjacks have been installed as favorites by an 8.5-point margin or more three times and are 3-0 ATS in those games.
• Incarnate Word has played 13 games, with seven wins against the spread.
• The Cardinals have an ATS record of 4-1 in their five games when underdogs by 8.5 points or more this year.
• SFA is unbeaten against the spread, and 6-0 overall, at home this year.
• At home, as a 8.5-point favorite or greater, SFA is unbeaten ATS (2-0).
• In away games, Incarnate Word has two wins against the spread and are 0-7 overall.

Betting the Moneyline: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• SFA has won nine of the 10 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Lumberjacks have entered three games this season favored by -441 or more, and won each of those games.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 81.5% chance of a victory for SFA.
• Incarnate Word has won in one of the six contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• The Cardinals have a win-loss record of 1-4 with odds of +338 or worse this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Incarnate Word has a 22.8% chance of walking away with the win.

Dunkel Index Prediction for SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• Pick ATS: SFA (- 8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (141.5)
  
• Prediction: SFA 73 - Incarnate Word 56