San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies NLCS Game 3 Betting Preview/Prop Picks
21 October 2022
Time: 7:37 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 16.622; Philadelphia 17.526
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line & Total: San Diego (-115); 7 ½
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over
With the series currently tied at 1-1, the San Diego Padres look to take the lead today. In Game 2, the Phillies let the score get out of hand, allowing the Padres to score eight runs.
Now, they’ll look to take the steps needed to ensure a win on the road. A lot is on the line for the Padres as the next three games are in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game as -105 favorites. After securing a win on the road, they’ll look to earn a few more while they’re at home. Getting a win tonight would mean a 2-1 lead over the Padres.
It won’t be an easy task, however, as the Padres are starting one of their best pitchers. Let’s take a look at each of these teams and make our pick.
San Diego Padres: Padres will send out SP Joe Musgrove
The San Diego Padres are looking to make a statement with a win on the road. To do this, they’ll need help from their starting pitcher, Joe Musgrove. Musgrove posted a record of 10-7 during the regular season with a 2.93 ERA.
Through his time on the mound, he earned 184 strikeouts, ranking 21st in MLB. They’ll need all they can get from Musgrove this evening.
The Padres will also need their batters to pick up where they left off last night. As a team, the Padres have a batting average of .241, ranking 16th in the league.
With an on-base percentage of .318, the Padres are eighth overall. Keep an eye out for Juan Soto to make a big difference in tonight’s game.
Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies batters will play a large role again
Similar to the last game, we think the Phillies batters will play a significant role again. They’re one of the best batting teams in the league with an average of .253.
During the regular season, the Phillies put up well over 700 runs and now they need to do it again. They found a way to score five runs in the last game and that’s what they’ll shoot for today.
Getting the start for the Phillies on the mound is Ranger Suarez. Suarez is a good starting pitcher but far from the Phillies best.
He posted a 10-7 record during the regular season with an ERA of 3.65. Although they don’t have the stronger pitcher today, the Phillies should be able to make up for it with batting.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick
This is a pretty tough call because of how good the Padres can be at times. They easily moved past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the last series.
Keep in mind the Dodgers were considered the best team in the league. However, their playing on the road against the Phillies puts them at a disadvantage.
The Phillies might not be starting the best pitcher but they have the better batters. We saw just how large of a role that played in Game 2 of this series. We don’t think the Phillies will miss a chance to go up 2-1 in this series.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -105, OVER
Prop Picks
San Diego (-130) OVER 3.5 Runs
San Diego averaged 4.35 runs per 9 innings on offense this season, which ranked No. 13 in MLB. That average increased to 4.98 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone OVER in eight of the Padres’ last 12 games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia win by the score of 5-4, take the Padres (-130) to finish OVER their team total of 3.5 runs against the Phillies.
Joe Musgrove (-170); OVER 1.5 Earned Runs
Philadelphia averaged 4.62 runs per 9 innings on offense this season, which ranked No. 7 in MLB. That average increased to 4.98 runs per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take the Musgrove (-170) to finish OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed versus the Phillies.
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