Ruoff Mortgage 500 Preview/Prop Picks
10 March 2022
NASCAR drivers make the move from Vegas to Phoenix for the Ruoff Mortgage 500. The betting favorites are back up top again, but some other faces have been appearing in the top five lately.
Some drivers have a solid history at this track, making them appealing options. Check out below to see who has a shot to win.
Race Details
Date: Sun, Mar 13, 3:30 PM
Watch on: FOX
Track: Phoenix Raceway
Betting Overview
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile flat track, which is different from two and a half-mile track drivers just completed. This will be the first race where drivers have the Next Gen cars on this short of a track.
Speaking of the Next Gen cars, some drivers still appear to be getting used to the car. In addition, this creates slightly better opportunities for those that have been able to adjust.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Kyle Larson (161.036) and Martin Truex Jr (164.712) are some of the best drivers that have figured out the Next-Gen car. Larson has been on a roll as usual, and Truex has a good history here.
Larson finished seventh in this race last season but also clinched his Cup Series championship here later in the year. Look for Larson to continue riding the hot streak.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
1 Kyle Larson 161.036
2 Kurt Busch 163.821
3 Kyle Busch 164.350
4 Martin Truex Jr 164.712
5 Aric Almirola 165.587
6 Joey Logano 165.735
7 Alex Bowman 166.097
8 Ryan Blaney 166.332
9 Austin Dillon 166.552
10 Kevin Harvick 166.965
*index is subject to changes
Drivers That Could Win
Kyle Busch (164.350) finished 25th in this race last season, which was a surprise to see compared to other seasons. Since 2014, he has finished in the top five in each race except that one.
In the Pennzoil 400 recently, Busch finished fourth. He is still a solid choice with his track history here and with recent results backing him up.
Joey Logano (165.735) won this event back in 2020 and finished runner-up in last year’s race. Looking at just recent results here, he has the best chance to win in that regard.
Martin Truex Jr (164.712) is the defending champ of this race and was a runner-up later in that same year for the Cup Series. He does not have any top-five finishes so far this season, but this is a track he has been confident on. He is also coming off an eighth-place finish at the Pennzoil 400, so he has some solid momentum.
Potential Winning Pick
Kyle Larson (161.036), once again, is at the top of the rankings and odds to win another race. His second-place finish at the Pennzoil 400 and his victory in the Auto Club 400 makes him dangerous heading in. Last year’s performances also make him a threat.
Prop Picks
Matchup: Aric Almirola (-110) OVER Alex Bowman
In his final season, Almirola is enjoying a personal best 3-for-3 in Top 10 finishes to start the season, including a 6th place finish last week at Las Vegas. His average finish of 5.7 is the best on the circuit.
Bowman came out of nowhere to claim the victory at Las Vegas, but had finished just 24th and 25th in the previous two races.
With Almirola rated No. 5 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Bowman No. 7, take the steady Almirola (-110) to continue his strong farewell run and get the edge in this matchup.
Matchup: Ryan Blaney (-125) OVER William Byron
Blaney’s hard luck to start the season continued at Las Vegas when he collided with Brad Keselowski after leading the race for 10 laps. His 19.3 average finish belies the fact that he has led at least one lap in all three races this year.
Byron was just the opposite, finishing a strong 5th at Las Vegas after struggling to 34th and 38th place finishes at Daytona and Fontana.
With Blaney rated No. 8 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Byron No. 12, take Blaney (-125) to finally put together a complete race and get the better of this matchup.
