Players Championship Betting Preview/Player Props
08 March 2021
The next event takes place at the Players Stadium Course or known as TPC Sawgrass. This event did not occur last year due to Covid issues, so it will happily resume this season.
Tournament Details
Date: Mar 11–14, 2021
Course: Players Stadium Course
Watch on: NBC, GOLF
Purse: $15,000,000
Betting Overview
Players have had a year off from this event due to COVID-19 issues. The last winner was Rory Mcllroy in 2019.
This event usually has some recent scores needed to claim a victory. The last two seasons needed an average of roughly -17 to claim victory.
Brooks Koepka has withdrawn from this event due to a potential knee injury. Bryson DeChambeau enters with the best momentum after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following 10 are:
- Dustin Johnson -5.452
- Collin Morikawa -5.637
- Bryson DeChambeau -8.008
- Patrick Cantlay -9.688
- Daniel Berger -10.994
- Webb Simpson -12.069
- Tony Finau -12.272
- Patrick Reed -12.533
- Justin Thomas -12.922
- Jon Rahm -13.072
*index is subject to changes
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Webb Simpson (-12.069) and Rory Mcllroy (-14.114)
These two golfers have won this event the last two years, with Simpson winning in 2018 and Mcllroy in 2019. Simpson had a -18 in his year, and Mcllroy had a -16 on his, so they both show to have high scores, and it could be an interesting matchup.
Golfers That Could Win
Dustin Johnson (-5.452)
Johnson could be a solid option, especially as the best-ranked golfer, number one overall, at this event. However, he has not performed well at this event specifically.
There are some positives to look at, as he has gotten better each year. In 2019, he finished T-5th, and that was his best finish.
Rory Mcllroy (-14.114)
Mcllroy does not even crack the top 10 in the Dunkel index, but he is a favorite among other markets. He won this event in 2019 by a one-stroke lead and could be an interesting value to watch.
Potential Winning Pick
Justin Thomas (-12.922)
Thomas has a few players ahead of him with better chances of winning though he is used to that. He had a streak of seven places inside the top 12, so he is not shy of playing well.
Looking at his current stats, he is sixth in strokes, gained approaching the green and then 14th tee to green. This is huge in having success around this course, especially where bad ball-striking is heavily punished.
With recent play at TPC Sawgrass, he has had a T-3 in 2016 and a T-11 for 2018. He has the ability to play well enough in this tournament to secure a win and get back in the winner's circle against the odds.
Player Props
Top 10 Finish: Webb Simpson (+300)
Simpson has fond memories of TPC Sawgrass from his 2018 Players Championship. He fired a 63 on Friday and set the record for a 54-hole lead at seven shots before cruising to a four-stroke win at 18-under.
The former U.S. Open champ has also started off this season well with two Top 10 finishes, including a 6th in his most recent tournament in the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession. Overall, Simpson comes into this week’s event ranked 4th in driving accuracy (71.63%), 6th in scoring average (69.738) and 21st in birdie average (4.47).
Rated as the No. 6 golfer by the Dunkel Index, we’ll take Simpson (+330) to finish in the Top 10 at the Players Championship.
Top 20 Finish: Christian Bezuidenhout (+335)
The 26-year-old South African has become well-known on the European Tour with three championships under his belt and is now starting to make a name for himself on the PGA Tour.
He is coming off his best performance of the year as he remained in contention at the Bay Hill with a final round 73 under tough conditions to finish 7th. He’s also made all four cuts in tournaments he’s entered so far and has one of the best sand games on Tour with a 67.65 save percentage (ranked No. 4).
This young pro looks to be getting better every week and comes in ranked No. 15 in the Dunkel Index. Bet on Bezuidenhout (+335) to finish in the Top 20 at TPC Sawgrass.
Make The Cut: Jordan Spieth (-150)
We picked Spieth to finish in the Top 20 last week at Bay Hill and were rewarded with a 4th place finish. It’s been part of a hot stretch for the 11-time winner as he tries to regain his earlier form.
Spieth hasn’t missed the cut since the Farmers Insurance Open back in January and has a 4th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and 3rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to his credit in addition to last week’s strong performance.
Despite his improved play and No. 20 ranking in the Dunkel Index, Spieth’s price to make the cut (-150) is far below some of the top contenders this week like Dustin Johnson (-400), Xander Schauffele (-400) and Jon Rahm (-400). That makes him a strong value play in our book. We’ll take Spieth (-150) to still be playing on Sunday.
Keep up with your latest golf news coverage and betting pick previews at The Dunkel Index.
