Steelers vs. Falcons Week 1 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) are considered favorites (-3.5) according to the oddsmakers ahead of their game against the Atlanta Falcons (0-0) on September 13, 2026, starting at 1 p.m. ET, airing on FOX. An over/under of 42.5 points has been set for the matchup.

The Steelers totaled 305.6 yards per game on offense last season (25th in NFL), and they gave up 356.9 yards per game (26th) on the defensive side of the ball. From an offensive standpoint, the Falcons ranked 24th in the NFL with 20.8 points per game last season. Meanwhile, they ranked 19th in points allowed (326.6 points allowed per contest).

Steelers vs. Falcons Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• City: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium
• Total: 42.5 points
• Spread: Steelers -3.5
• Moneyline: Steelers (-185), Falcons (+154)

How to watch Steelers vs. Falcons

• TV Channel: FOX

Betting the Over/Under: Steelers vs. Falcons

• In 12 games last season, the Steelers and their opponents scored more than 42.5 total points.
• Steelers games went over the point total 10 out of 17 times last season.
• Atlanta played 11 games last season that finished with a combined score over 42.5 points.
• Last year, eight Atlanta games hit the over.
• The teams combined to score 44.2 points per game last season, 1.7 more points than the point total for this matchup.
• Opponents of these teams put up 46.4 combined points per game last season, 3.9 more than the over/under for this matchup.

Betting the Spread: Steelers vs. Falcons

• Pittsburgh went 9-8-0 ATS last season.
• Pittsburgh had an ATS record of 3-3 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites last season.
• The Falcons won nine games against the spread last year, while failing to cover eight times.
• When playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs last year, Atlanta had an ATS record of 6-1.
• The Steelers were 6-3 against the spread, and 6-3 overall, at home last season.
• Last season, as 3.5-point favorites or greater at home, Pittsburgh was 3-1 ATS.
• In away games last season, the Falcons were 6-3 against the spread, and 4-5 overall.
• Away from home, as 3.5-point underdogs or more, Atlanta was 4-0 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: Steelers vs. Falcons

• Pittsburgh finished 5-3 in games it was listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 62.5% of those games).
• The Falcons won five of the 10 games they played as underdogs last season.
• Pittsburgh went 2-3 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -185 or shorter (40%).
• Atlanta entered six games last season as the underdog by +154 or more and were 3-3 in those contests.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Steelers' implied win probability is 64.9%.

Dunkel Prediction for Steelers vs. Falcons

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