Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 1 Betting Preview/Prop Picks
28 October 2022
Time: 8:03 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 17.140; Houston 17.542
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by ½; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Houston (-167); 6 ½
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-167); Under
The first game of the World Series is here as the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Houston Astros. It’s been a long year, but everything leads up to this point.
The Phillies made quick work of each team they’ve faced, and now they’ll look to do it again. The difference this time is the Astros aren’t like any team the Phillies have faced.
The Houston Astros swept two teams to get here, one of which was surprising. Their ability to beat the New York Yankees in four straight games was impressive.
Now, with the chance to add another World Series title to their list, they’ll look to do it again. Can this team, led by Justin Verlander, get a fast start with a win tonight?
Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies need to stick to what they do best
With the eighth-best batting average in the league, the Phillies will look to do exactly that. They have a batting average of .253, and it’s what’s got them here.
They’ll rely on players like Kyle Schwarber for the out-of-the-park hits. Schwarber has hit 46 home runs this season, and Alec Bohm leads the team with a .280 average.
Taking the mound for the Phillies tonight is Aaron Nola. Nola has a record of 11-13 this season and is a slight cause for concern. When looking at who the Astros are starting, Nola just doesn’t match up well.
If there’s a reason for the Phillies losing this game, it’ll be on Nola’s outing on the mound. Still, we can’t count the Phillies out too quickly.
Houston Astros: Astros are sending out their ace
In terms of pitchers this season, none have performed as well as Justin Verlander. Verlander had a regular season record of 18-4 with a league-best 1.75 ERA.
With him on the mound, the Astros are hoping to guarantee a win. Frankly, if there’s a pitcher that can guarantee a win, it’s Verlander.
The Phillies have a slight edge over the Astros when it comes to batting. Still, the Astros are a pretty good team when it comes to scoring runs.
They rank eighth in the league in runs (737) and have the seventh-best on-base percentage (.319). Plus, with Verlander on the mound, they might not need to score many runs.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Betting Pick
If the Phillies were starting a better pitcher, we might lean in their direction. However, with Nola on the mound, they come in at a distinct disadvantage. Not only are they starting a pitcher with a losing record, but he’s facing Justin Verlander.
We feel as if this game is pretty clear-cut on who will win. The Astros are at home, where they had a 55-26 record during the regular season.
They’re also coming off of two straight sweeps, and they have the better pitcher. Everything is lined up for the Astros to win this game, so we’ll take them -167.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Houston Astros -167, UNDER
Prop Picks
Houston (-110) UNDER 3.5 Runs
Philadelphia allowed an average of 4.16 runs per 9 innings on defense this season, which ranked No. 12 in MLB. That average decreased to 3.67 runs per 9 innings over the last 3 games. Scores have gone UNDER in six of the Phillies’ last eight interleague road games.
With Dunkel predicting a Houston win by the score of 3-2, take the Astros (-110) to finish UNDER their team total of 3.5 runs against the Phillies.
Aaron Nola (-140) UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Nola allowed 168 hits in 205.0 innings pitched during the regular season with an opposing batting average of .219. The Phillies right hander allowed just 2 hits in 6.2 IP with an OBA of .091 in his one start against Houston this season.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas run total, take the Nola (-140) to finish UNDER 4.5 hits allowed versus the Astros.
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