Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview/Prop Picks
28 July 2022
With a record of 51-47, the Philadelphia Phillies rank third in the NL East. Tonight, they’ll put their record on the line against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phillies are coming off of a 7-2 win over the Atlanta Braves last night.
They’ll likely look to use this win as momentum heading into tonight’s game. Our question is whether or not they can win on the road against the Pirates.
At first glance, the Pittsburgh Pirates might not look like much. They have a 40-58 record and rank fourth in the NL Central. They’ve also lost their last three games this season, most recently to the Chicago Cubs.
However, the Pirates have been able to take down quite a few good teams, including the Milwaukee Brewers. Could the Philadelphia Phillies be next on their list?
Philadelphia Phillies: Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies
This game is definitely going to be an entertaining one with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Before we look at Wheeler’s stats, let’s go over yesterday’s game against the Braves. Neither team got off to a fast start, but in the fifth inning, the Phillies opened it up.
Scoring five runs in one inning nearly sealed the game for Philadelphia. However, they went on to add two more in the sixth.
With the ability to put up seven runs over two innings, the Phillies are in a good spot. They’re in an even better one with Wheeler on the mound. This season, Zack Wheeler has an ERA of 2.78 with a record of 8-5.
In 106.2 innings pitched, he’s thrown 114 strikeouts. When doing a pitcher comparison, the Phillies have a notable edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Pirates are in a tough spot against Wheeler
At home, the Pirates have a record of 21-25 this season. As we’ve mentioned before, don’t let their record trick you into believing they can’t win this one.
There was a significant stretch where the Pirates won four games in a row. Two of these games were over the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the best teams in the league. They’ll need to harness that ability in tonight’s game.
Going up against Wheeler is tough because the Pirates aren’t great at the plate. With a team batting average of .220, the Pirates rank 29th in the league.
Their leading batter is Bryan Reynolds, who is hitting .254 and has 15 home runs. On the mound for the Pirates is Zach Thompson, who is 3-7 this season. Thompson has an ERA of 4.64 over 75.2 innings.
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick
On the surface, the Philadelphia Phillies look to be the best team to pick here. However, we’re going to go with the road team, who comes in as +161 underdogs.
The reason for this is because we think this game will play into what the Pirates do best. The slow pace should make it easier for the Pirates to put up a few runs and get a win.
This is also why we’re going to take the under in tonight’s game. In Philadelphia’s last nine games on the road, the total has gone under seven times. It’s a risky pick to be sure, but we’ll take the Pittsburgh Pirates at +161.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +161, UNDER
Prop Picks
Philadelphia (-115) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Pittsburgh is allowing 5.05 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 27 in the league. That average decreases to 3.85 runs per 9 innings over the Pirates’ last seven games. Scores have gone UNDER in five of Pittsburgh’s last seven games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Pittsburgh victory by the score of 3-2, take the Phillies (-115) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Pirates.
Zack Wheeler (-145) UNDER 1.5 Walks
Wheeler has allowed 22 walks in 106.2 innings pitched this season for an average of 1.86 walks per 9 innings. The Philadelphia right hander’s walk rate decreases to 1.12 (4 walks in 32.0 IP) over his last five starts.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas total, take Wheeler (-145) to finish UNDER 1.5 walks allowed versus the Pirates.
Keep up with your latest MLB news coverage at The Dunkel Index.
All Media on this page by Associated Press.
