Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Betting Preview/Prop Picks
05 October 2022
Time: 4:10 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 14.670; Houston 16.817
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Houston (-190); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-190); Under
After suffering a 10-0 loss to the Houston Astros last night, the Philadelphia Phillies fell to 87-74. It was a tough loss, to be sure, but the Phillies have a chance to bounce back tonight.
It’ll take a bit of work to do, however, considering the Astros are one of the best teams in the league. Each of these teams is starting one of their best pitchers, so it’ll be interesting to see how it ends.
The Houston Astros tied up this series at 1-1 with their win over the Phillies yesterday. With the regular season coming to a close, they’ll see if they can earn one more win today.
They have a 105-56 record at the moment, one of the best in the league. In fact, they’re the only team with at least 100 wins in the American League. Tonight, they’ll look to push their record to 106-56.
Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies will send out Bailey Falter
The Philadelphia Phillies are currently third in the NL East, just behind the New York Mets. They were able to clinch a wild-card spot in the postseason even with an 87-74 record.
However, this team is pushing for its 88th win of the year. After last night’s loss, it should be glaringly obvious just how important good pitching is. By starting Bailey Falter, the Phillies are off to a good start.
Falter has a record of 6-4 with an ERA of 3.90. Although his ERA isn’t the best, he’s thrown 74 strikeouts in 83 innings this season. In that time, he’s allowed 83 hits and 16 home runs, so keep this in mind.
The Phillies have a slight advantage at the plate in this game. With a team average of .254, the Phillies rank seventh in Major League Baseball.
Houston Astros: Framber Valdez looks to earn his 17th win
When we said these teams were starting some good pitchers, we meant it. Framber Valdez is getting the start for the Houston Astros tonight and boasts a 16-6 record.
His ERA of 2.89 is among the best in the league, and he’s only allowed 11 home runs. That’s five home runs less than Falter, and Valdez has pitched 196.1 innings. That’s more than double Falter’s amount.
Where the Phillies have a slight edge, as we mentioned, is at the plate. The Astros have a team batting average of .247, ranking 13th in the league.
They make up for their batting average with the eighth-best on-base percentage (.319). They also have the sixth-best slugging percentage at .423. It also helps that they’re starting the better pitcher, so they won’t need as many runs.
Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Betting Pick
It should be no shock that the Houston Astros come into this game as relatively heavy favorites. Although the payout might not be as good as we’d like, they’re the better pick. Framber Valdez is too strong of a pitcher, even for the Phillies batters.
We’re going to recommend taking the Houston Astros in the final game of this series. They have a 54-26 record at home, and they’re starting the better pitcher.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Houston Astros -190, UNDER
Prop Picks
Philadelphia (-145) UNDER 3.5 Runs
Houston is allowing 3.20 runs per 9 innings this season, which ranks No. 2 in MLB. That average decreases to 3.14 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone UNDER in nine of the Astros’ last 13 home games versus a team with a winning record.
With Dunkel predicting a Houston win by the score of 4-2, take the Phillies (-145) to finish UNDER 3.5 runs scored versus the Astros.
Bailey Falter (-170) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Falter has allowed 83 hits in 83.0 innings pitched this season. The Philadelphia left hander has allowed only 37 hits in 43.2 IP on the road compared with 46 hits in 39.1 IP at home.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas run total, take Falter (-170) to finish UNDER 5.5 hits allowed against Houston.
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