Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview/Prop Picks
15 August 2022
Time: 6:40 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 15.823; Cincinnati 13.909
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-183); 9 ½
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-183); Under
Tonight we’ll see an NL East team face a team from the NL Central. The Philadelphia Phillies, currently ranked third in the NL East, will face the Cincinnati Reds, fourth in the NL Central.
The Phillies have lost their last two games, each to the New York Mets. To get some morale back and a few wins under their belt, they’ll need to beat the Reds in Cincinnati.
Things haven’t gone well for the Cincinnati Reds this season. With a record of 45-68, the Reds have lost four of their last five games. They are, however, coming off of an 8-5 win over the Chicago Cubs.
This might not seem like much, but it definitely lifted spirits in Cincinnati. If they can get a few wins over the Phillies, they could grab the third-place spot in the NL Central.
Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies are 31-25 when playing on the road
The Philadelphia Phillies have an overall record of 63-51, a rather impressive record. However, their record of 31-25 on the road is slightly more intriguing to us.
Being able to get a few wins here could mean the Phillies getting closer to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have a record of 70-46 and are slightly ahead of the Phillies in the NL East. A few wins here could change that.
Getting the start for the Phillies on the mound tonight is Noah Syndergaard, who is 6-8. His under .500 record might be concerning for some but not us.
His ERA of 3.96 is all we need to know that the Phillies have the pitching advantage. They’re also slightly better at the plate, boasting a batting average of .249 and an on-base percentage (OBP) of .312.
Cincinnati Reds: Pitching could be a big problem for Cincinnati
One of the determining factors when it comes to who will win a game is the starting pitcher. Getting the start for the Cincinnati Reds is the 1-9 Mike Minor, who has an ERA of 6.24.
With Minor on the mound, the Reds are at a serious disadvantage. Over 62 innings, Minor has allowed 69 hits and 18 home runs. So, how can the Reds combat his poor pitching?
What they’ll first need to do is get on base and start scoring early. If they can get a large lead over the Phillies, they’ll hope that Minor can hold them off.
The problem is, the Reds haven’t been very good at the plate this season. As a team, they have an average of .240, ranking 19th overall. They’re 20th in Major League Baseball in terms of runs (478) and have a .310 OBP.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick
For us, this one is pretty clearly going to the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ve played spectacularly on the road and are 41-28 as the favorite.
They come into this game as heavy favorites, but you can pair it with the under to earn extra winnings. Although Minor’s on the mound, we don’t expect this game to go over the expected total.
Philadelphia is starting the better pitcher and has the better bats. Syndergaard should be able to hold off Cincinnati for a sizable portion of today’s game. It’s also important to note that the Phillies are 33-23 against the spread when playing on the road.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -183, UNDER
Prop Picks
Cincinnati (-110) UNDER 3.5 Runs
Philadelphia is allowing 4.03 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 9 in the league. That average decreases to 2.70 runs per 9 innings over Philadelphia’s last 10 games overall. Scores have gone UNDER in 15 of the Phillies’ last 21 games following a loss.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia victory by the score of 4-2, take the Reds (-110) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Phillies.
Philadelphia (-165) Most Hits
Philadelphia is allowing 7.89 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 10 in the league. Cincinnati is allowing 8.60 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 25. That average increases to 9.22 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia victory while holding the Reds UNDER their Vegas run total, take the Phillies (-165) to finish with more hits than Cincinnati.
Jean Segura (-135) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Segura has scored 25 runs in 52 games played with an OBP of .324 this season. The Philadelphia second baseman has scored 3 runs in 27 at-bats with an OBP of .321 since returning from injury to the lineup.
With Dunkel predicting a Phillies win while outhitting the Reds, take Segura (-135) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored versus Cincinnati.
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