Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview/Prop Picks
12 October 2022
Time: 4:35 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 15.746; Atlanta 17.632
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 10
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-142); 7 ½
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-142); OVER
Both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will face off tonight. On the road against the Braves, the Phillies currently lead the series 1-0.
Tonight, they’ll try to get a 2-0 lead and force the Phillies to the brink of elimination. This is a task that is much easier said than done, but the Phillies are up to the challenge. After yesterday’s 7-6 win, they still come in as underdogs.
The Atlanta Braves finished the season with a 101-61 record. Although they suffered a loss yesterday, don’t count the Braves out just yet. This team has a slew of talent, and they’re one of the best batting teams in the league.
If there’s a team that can rally back after a loss, it’s the Atlanta Braves. So, between these two teams, which one is the better bet for tonight?
Philadelphia Phillies: Pitching should decide today’s game
Something that is often overlooked is just how well the pitcher matches up with his opposition. The Philadelphia Phillies are sending out Zack Wheeler, who finished the season 12-7.
With a 2.82 ERA, the Phillies will have a solid pitcher on the mound to start the day. This will play a big part in taking down the Braves, considering how good they are at the plate.
Don’t underestimate the Phillies here, either, as they have a .253 batting average. They rank seventh in Major League Baseball in runs (747). Not only that, they have an on-base percentage of .317, ranking 11th overall.
They have a slight edge over the Braves in a few categories. The question is, will it be enough to win tonight’s game?
Atlanta Braves: Kyle Wright gets the nod to start today
The Braves are sending out one of their best pitchers in, Kyle Wright, tonight. Wright finished the regular season with a record of 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA.
His record alone puts him ahead of Zack Wheeler in the pitching battle. However, yesterday we saw that the Braves have a hard time rallying back from a deficit. They were down 6-1 at the bottom of the fourth inning.
Falling to that much of a deficit so quickly is what lost them the game. They tried to do the best they could to score, even putting up three runs in the ninth.
However, the lead was too insurmountable for them, and they fell short by a run. For the Braves to win this game, they’ll need a lot more from Kyle Wright than they got from Max Fried.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Pick
This one is a tough call because both of these teams are so similar. However, between the two, the Braves have been the better team this season. And they were especially tough at home where their 55-26 record was second-best in the NL.
This game is likely to be another close contest as well, so we’ll take the under. Each of these teams has a strong batting lineup as well. Because of this, we think that several runs will be scored tonight. But the Braves find a way to win the slugfest.
Prediction: Atlanta Braves (-142), OVER
Prop Picks
Atlanta (-135) OVER 3.5 Runs
Atlanta averaged 4.88 runs per 9 innings on offense this year, which ranked No. 3 in MLB. That average remained steady at 4.89 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone OVER in four of the Braves’ last five games following a loss.
With Dunkel predicting an Atlanta win by the score of 6-4, take the Braves (-135) to finish OVER their team total of 3.5 runs against the Phillies.
Kyle Schwarber (-105) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Schwarber scored 100 runs in 155 games played this season, which ranked No. 1 on the Phillies. The left fielder scored 12 runs in 63 at-bats versus Atlanta, the second-most he scored against a team this year.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take Schwarber (-105) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored against the Braves.
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