Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 14

The Ole Miss Rebels (11-13, 3-8 SEC) are favored, by 3.5 points, over the Mississippi State Bulldogs (11-13, 3-8 SEC) on February 14, 2026 at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are sputtering right now, having lost three in a row and going 2-8 in their past 10 games. The over/under in the matchup is 142.5.

In its last game on Wednesday, Ole Miss suffered a 93-74 loss to Alabama. AJ Storr scored a team-leading 27 points for Ole Miss in the loss. Mississippi State's last contest on Wednesday ended in a 73-64 loss to Tennessee. Josh Hubbard's team-leading 31 points paced Mississippi State in the losing effort.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Where: The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi
• Spread favorite: Ole Miss -3.5
• Moneyline favorite: Ole Miss -206
• Moneyline underdog: Mississippi State +170
• Over/Under: 142.5 points

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• TV Channel: ESPN2
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• This season, 14 of Ole Miss' 24 games have gone over Saturday's total of 142.5 points.
• There have been 19 Mississippi State games that ended with a combined score higher than 142.5 points this season.
• The point total for the matchup of 142.5 is 8.2 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Rebels (73.9 points per game) and the Bulldogs (76.8 points per game).
• The 151.4 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score combined this season are 8.9 more than the 142.5-point total in this contest.
• On average, Ole Miss has seen a 146.9-point over/under in its games this season, 4.4 more points than the over/under in this contest.
• Mississippi State's games have an average over/under of 155.2 points this season, 12.7 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• Ole Miss is 8-16-0 against the spread this season.
• The Rebels have covered the spread twice this season when favored by 3.5 points or more (in nine chances).
• Mississippi State has eight wins against the spread in 24 games this season.
• The Bulldogs have been underdogs by 3.5 points or more 10 times this year and are 3-7 ATS in those games.
• At home this year, Ole Miss is 7-4 overall and 3-8 against the spread.
• At home, Ole Miss has two wins ATS (2-4) as a 3.5-point favorite or greater.
• Mississippi State is 3-3 overall, and 4-2 against the spread, on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

• Ole Miss has won nine, or 81.8%, of the 11 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Rebels have entered nine games this season favored by -206 or more and are 8-1 in those contests.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 67.3% chance of a victory for Ole Miss.
• Mississippi State has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in 10 games this year and has walked away with the win two times (20%) in those games.
• The Bulldogs have a win-loss record of 2-7 with odds of +170 or worse this year.
• Mississippi State has an implied victory probability of 37% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.