Thunder vs. Heat Dunkel NBA Picks, Predictions and Odds - Jan. 17

The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) will look to build on a five-game winning run when visiting the Miami Heat (21-20) on January 17, 2026 at Kaseya Center.

The Thunder are currently sizable 10.5-point favorites over the Heat. The over/under is 235.5 points for the matchup.

Thunder vs. Heat Odds and Game Time

• Game day: Saturday, January 17, 2026
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Arena: Kaseya Center
• Total: 235.5 points
• Spread: Thunder -10.5
• Moneyline: Thunder (-450), Heat (+350)

How to watch Thunder vs. Heat

• TV Channel: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Thunder vs. Heat

• In 13 games this season, the Thunder and their opponents have scored more than 235.5 total points.
• Heat games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 235.5 points in 22 of 41 outings.
• These teams rack up 240.5 points per game between them, five more than this game's over/under.
• Combined, these teams allow 225.5 points per game, 10 fewer points than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Thunder vs. Heat

• Oklahoma City has covered 21 times in 42 chances against the spread this season.
• The Thunder have covered the spread 15 times this season (15-11 ATS) when playing as at least 10.5-point favorites.
• The Heat have put together a 23-17-1 record against the spread this season.
• Miami has won its only game this year when playing as at least 10.5-point underdogs.
• At home this year, the Heat are 14-7 overall and 12-9 against the spread.
• At home, Miami is unbeaten ATS (1-0) as a 10.5-point underdog or more.
• Away from home, the Thunder are 15-4 overall and 9-10 against the spread.
• Oklahoma City is 6-3 ATS as 10.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Thunder vs. Heat

• The Thunder have gone 35-7 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 83.3% of those games).
• This season, the Heat have won 10 out of the 23 games, or 43.5%, in which they've been the underdog.
• Oklahoma City has a record of 24-2 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -450 or shorter (winning 92.3%).
• Miami has played as an underdog of +350 or more once this season and lost that game.
• The Thunder have an implied moneyline win probability of 81.8% in this matchup.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Thunder vs. Heat

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 10.5)
• Pick OU: Under (235.5)
  
• Prediction: Thunder 117 - Heat 111
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NBA Picks!