Thunder vs. Heat Dunkel NBA Picks, Predictions and Odds - Jan. 11

The Miami Heat (20-18) take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) on January 11, 2026 at Paycom Center.

The Thunder take on the Heat in a game that Oklahoma City is currently a substantial favorite by 14 points. A 233.5-point total is set for the game.

Thunder vs. Heat Odds and Game Time

• Game day: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Arena: Paycom Center
• Total: 233.5 points
• Spread: Thunder -14
• Moneyline: Thunder (-800), Heat (+560)

How to watch Thunder vs. Heat

• TV Channel: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Thunder vs. Heat

• In 14 games this season, the Thunder and their opponents have gone over 233.5 combined points.
• The Heat have played 22 games this season that ended with a combined score over 233.5 points.
• These two teams score 240.9 points per game combined, 7.4 more than this game's total.
• These teams allow 225.9 points per game combined, 7.6 points fewer than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Thunder vs. Heat

• Oklahoma City is 19-20-0 ATS this season.
• The Thunder have been favored by 14 points or more 16 times this season, and covered the spread in nine of those games.
• The Heat have covered 21 times in 38 games with a spread this season.
• At home this year, the Thunder are 11-10 against the spread and 18-3 overall.
• At home, as a 14-point favorite or more, Oklahoma City is 8-5 ATS.
• The Heat are 7-12 overall, and 10-8-1 against the spread, on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Thunder vs. Heat

• The Thunder are 32-7 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 82.1% of those games).
• This season, the Heat have won 10 out of the 21 games, or 47.6%, in which they've been the underdog.
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -800 or shorter, Oklahoma City has gone 16-1 (94.1% win percentage).
• Miami has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +560.
• Based on this contest's moneyline, the Thunder's implied win probability is 88.9%.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Thunder vs. Heat

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 14)
• Pick OU: Under (233.5)
  
• Prediction: Thunder 111 - Heat 110
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NBA Picks!