New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros ALCS Game 1 Betting Preview/Prop Picks
19 October 2022
Time: 7:37 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees 16.474; Houston 16.948
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by ½; 9
Vegas Line & Total: Houston (-199); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-199); Over
We're slightly shocked that the schedule didn't allow a day of rest for the New York Yankees. After beating the Cleveland Guardians 5-1 yesterday, they're out on the road again today.
Now, they'll head to Houston to face the Astros in the first game of the ALCS. Our biggest question is how will the quick turnaround affect the player's health and performance.
The Houston Astros haven't played a game since October 15, so they're well-rested. As they get to host one of their most notable rivals, we'd say they have a significant advantage.
Each of these teams wants to strike the first blow, but that's much easier said than done. Houston comes into this game as a heavy favorite but are they the best pick?
New York Yankees: How will the turnaround affect the players?
Playing two nights in a row is not an easy task and could put the Yankees in a bad position. They're coming off a big win but traveled from New York to Houston overnight.
Fatigue has likely already set in, even though they're the second game of the day. There are not many ways to combat this either without a day of rest.
Getting the start on the mound for the Yankees is Jameson Taillon, who posted a 14-5 record. This was his record during the regular season, and he added a 3.91 ERA to it.
He's backed up by a strong group of batters, but their performance will be in question. Overall, the Yankees have a team batting average of .241 this year.
Houston Astros: Astros are starting their best pitcher tonight
The Houston Astros have a few advantages in their favor tonight. For starters, they're well-rested, having not played a game since October 15.
Along with that, their opponent is definitely feeling the effects of travel and a long series. Using these to their advantage, the Astros are the clear favorite in tonight's game.
To add more obstacles for the Yankees to overcome, Justin Verlander is getting the start. Verlander posted an 18-4 record during the regular season, ranking second overall.
He had the best ERA during the regular season, however, at 1.75. So, now they can add the pitching battle to the list of advantages they have.
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros Betting Pick
This could end up being a close game, but the Yankees aren't our pick for it. They're playing on a short schedule, and they're on the road today as well.
Taillon is a good pitcher, but he's not quite on the same tier as Verlander. The main problem for the Yankees is the quick turnaround.
The Houston Astros have a 55-26 record at home and are well-rested. Every advantage goes in their favor tonight, especially when it comes to pitching.
With Verlander on the mound, the Astros should be able to pull off a win tonight. If they don't, this will end up being a long series for the Houston Astros as they head to New York.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Houston Astros -199, OVER
Prop Picks
Houston (-135) OVER 3.5 Runs
Houston averaged 4.55 runs per 9 innings on offense this season, which ranked No. 8 in MLB. That average remained consistent at 4.58 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone OVER in five of the Astros’ last six LCS games.
With Dunkel predicting a Houston win by the score of 5-4, take the Astros (-135) to finish OVER their team total of 3.5 runs against the Yankees.
Houston (-130) Most Hits
Houston averaged 8.30 hits per 9 innings on offense this season, which ranked No. 13 in MLB. Houston allowed 6.95 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranked No. 2 in MLB. That average decreased to 6.80 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting Houston going OVER its Vegas run total, take the Astros (-130) to finish with more hits than the Yankees
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