Patriots vs. Chargers AFC Wild Card Round Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

In the AFC Wild Card round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the New England Patriots will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5). The over/under for this one is set at 45.5 points.

The Patriots rank eighth in total defense this year (295.2 yards allowed per game), but they've been thriving on offense, ranking third-best in the NFL with 379.4 total yards per game. With 21.6 points per game on offense, the Chargers rank 20th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank ninth, allowing 20 points per contest.

Patriots vs. Chargers Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• City: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Total: 45.5 points
• Spread: Patriots -3.5
• Moneyline: Patriots (-198), Chargers (+164)

How to watch Patriots vs. Chargers

• TV Channel: NBC/Peacock

Betting the Over/Under: Patriots vs. Chargers

• The Patriots and their opponents have gone over 45.5 combined points in 10 of 17 games this season.
• A total of 11 out of 17 New England games this season have hit the over.
• The Chargers have played six games this season that have gone over 45.5 combined points scored.
• In Los Angeles' 17 contests this year, the combined scoring has gone over the point total six times.
• The teams combine to score 50.4 points per game, 4.9 more points than this matchup's point total.
• Opponents of these two teams score 38.8 points per game combined, 6.7 fewer than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Patriots vs. Chargers

• New England is 11-6-0 ATS this season.
• New England is 7-3 ATS this season when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.
• The Chargers have put together a 9-8-0 record against the spread this season.
• Los Angeles has covered the spread twice as an underdog by 3.5 points or more this year (in three opportunities).
• At home this season, the Patriots are 4-5 against the spread and 6-3 overall.
• New England is 4-2 ATS as 3.5-point favorites or more at home.
• Away from home, the Chargers are 3-5 against the spread and 5-3 overall.
• Los Angeles has one win ATS (1-1) as 3.5-point underdogs or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Patriots vs. Chargers

• New England has gone 10-1 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 90.9% of those games).
• The Chargers have won four of the five games they've played as underdogs this season.
• New England has won all nine games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -198 or shorter.
• Los Angeles has a record of 1-1 when it is set as an underdog of +164 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Patriots have an implied win probability of 66.4%.

Dunkel Prediction for Patriots vs. Chargers

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