Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship Game Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

The New England Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -4.5), in their AFC Playoffs matchup versus the Denver Broncos. The expected point total for the game is 43.5.

On offense, the Patriots have been a top-five unit, ranking third-best in the NFL by totaling 379.4 yards per game. They rank eighth on defense (295.2 yards allowed per game). The Broncos have been keeping opposing offenses in check on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 278.2 total yards per contest (second-best). On offense, they rank 10th by accumulating 342.6 total yards per game.

Patriots vs. Broncos Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• City: Denver, Colorado
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
• Total: 43.5 points
• Spread: Patriots -4.5
• Moneyline: Patriots (-205), Broncos (+170)

How to watch Patriots vs. Broncos

• TV Channel: CBS (KBAK-Bakersfield, CA)
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Patriots vs. Broncos

• In 13 of 17 games (including the regular season and playoffs), the Patriots and their opponents have combined to total more than 43.5 points.
• During the regular season, 11 New England games hit the over, and in the playoffs zero of one.
• The Broncos and their opponents have combined to score more than 43.5 points in six of 17 games, including the regular season and playoffs.
• In the regular season, seven Denver games hit the over, and one of one in the postseason.
• These teams averaged a combined 52.4 points per game in the regular season, 8.9 more than this matchup's over/under.
• Combined, these teams gave up 37.1 points per contest in the regular season, 6.4 fewer points than the total for this game.

Betting the Spread: Patriots vs. Broncos

• New England compiled an 11-6-0 record against the spread in the regular season and is 1-0-0 in the postseason.
• New England has been favored by 4.5 points or more nine times this season (regular season and playoffs), and covered the spread in six of those contests.
• The Broncos went 7-10-0 ATS in the regular season. Meanwhile, the team has a 1-0-0 against the spread in the postseason.
• Denver has covered the spread when playing as at least a 4.5-point underdog in two of two games during the regular season and playoffs.
• The Broncos are 5-4 against the spread, and 8-1 overall, at home.
• At home, as 4.5-point underdogs or more, Denver is unbeaten ATS (1-0).
• The Patriots are 7-1 against the spread, and 8-0 overall, in away games.
• New England has two wins ATS (2-1) as 4.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Patriots vs. Broncos

• New England went 10-1 in games when it was favored on the moneyline during the regular season (winning 90.9% of those games), and is 1-0 in the playoffs.
• The Broncos won four of the five games in which they were underdogs during the regular season, and are 0-0 in the postseason.
• New England has played nine times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -205 or shorter, including the regular season and postseason, and won in each game.
• Denver has entered two regular season and playoff games this season as the underdog by +170 or more and won each of those games.
• Based on this contest's moneyline, the Patriots have an implied win probability of 67.2%.

Dunkel Prediction for Patriots vs. Broncos

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