Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Something has to give on Christmas Day when the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, both on two-game losing streaks, meet in Louisiana.

The Saints' recent slide has them in jeopardy of dropping from the top seed in the NFC all the way down to the third seed. What's happening in Minnesota has been even more dire, as the Vikings have seen their chances of making the playoffs drop all the way to 2%, according to the math wizards at FiveThirtyEight.

The Line: Vikings at Saints (-6.5)

We know the Saints will play great defense. They are ranked third overall in the NFL, and even though they lost to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday, they were able to pressure Mahomes the entire game. That same kind of pass rush against Kirk Cousins will completely stop the Vikings offense.

But just how effective can Drew Brees be in his second game back? Against a Minnesota defense that ranks 24th against the pass, don't bet against him. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints should be able to move the ball, which is the reason for the 6.5-point line.

Minnesota Vikings

The hole the Vikings dug for themselves at the beginning of the season is proving to be too big to climb out. From 1-5 to 6-6 was shaping up to one of the great turnarounds in recent NFL history, but a bad loss to Dallas and last Sunday's loss to Chicago has derailed the comeback train.

It's been a strange season. Dalvin Cook has stayed healthy and played great. Rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson is proving to be a superstar. 

Even Cousins has been good, with the highest touchdown rate of his career coming in 2020. Yet Minnesota has never really been able to put it together and finds itself unexpectedly in third place in the NFC North behind both the Packers and Bears.

New Orleans Saints

Brees was obviously rusty in his first game back from broken ribs, and many were questioning the decision to play him. But he was bound to be a little off in his first game back, and better it happened against an AFC team like the Chiefs, instead of the two remaining NFC games that the Saints must win.

A win over Minnesota, followed by a win over Carolina, will clinch the second seed for New Orleans. But the only way the Saints can get back to the top is if Green Bay was to lose both of its remaining games. 

One loss won't do it since the Packers have a head-to-head victory over New Orleans.

Vikings Lose But Cover

New Orleans is the fourth-ranked team on the Dunkel Index at 134.052, while Minnesota ranks just 19th with an index rating of 132.208. But that is a season-long rating, and as things stand right now, these two teams are closer than the rankings appear.

Brees and head coach Sean Payton will find a way to stay in the second seed, but the Vikings will keep it close and cover the near-touchdown spread.

For more Dunkel Index NFL picks, check out our NFL picks page.