Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Betting Preview/Prop Picks
24 August 2022
Time: 8:10 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 15.215; Houston 17.539
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 2 ½; 10
Vegas Line & Total: Houston (-228); 7 ½
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-228); Over
The Minnesota Twins have lost four games in a row, dropping their record to 62-59. They’ve fallen to second in the AL Central after being passed up by the Cleveland Guardians.
Today, they continue their series against the Houston Astros. They already lost last night 4-2 after a poor batting and pitching performance. Can they at least get a win over Houston tonight?
The Houston Astros lead the AL West with a record of 79-45. Only a game away from breaking the 80-win mark, the Astros will send out one of their best tonight.
With a strong pitcher on the mound, the Astros have a good chance of winning this game. They come into tonight’s game as heavy favorites. Will they come through at the sportsbook? Or is Minnesota a better option?
Minnesota Twins: Poor pitching has seen the Twins go 0-4
It’s pretty easy to diagnose what’s wrong with the Minnesota Twins; it’s poor pitching. They have yet to acquire a pitcher capable of putting away batters.
Tonight, it’s no different as they start Dylan Bundy, who is 7-5 with an ERA of 4.60. Over the course of 103.2 innings, Bundy has thrown just 77 strikeouts and allowed 105 hits. The Twins are in for another long night.
It’s not just the pitching that has gone wrong, however. Their batting group has also taken a significant step back in recent games. Even last night’s game saw the Twins score only two runs, and it wasn’t until the ninth inning.
As a team, the Twins have an average of .249, ranking 11th in the league. Unfortunately, that average is much worse over the last four games.
Houston Astros: Framber Valdez takes the mound tonight
The Houston Astros don’t only have a strong batting group but great pitching as well. Yesterday, they started Justin Verlander, who threw six no-hit innings against the Twins.
Tonight, they’ll start the 12-4 Framber Valdez, who has an ERA of 2.72. Through 149 innings, Valdez has thrown 134 strikeouts and allowed just seven home runs.
Valdez is backed up by batters like Yordan Alvarez, who has an average of .296. He also has RBI guru Kyle Tucker, who has 82 RBIs this season. As a team, the Astros have a batting average of .247, ranking 13th in the league.
They have an on-base percentage of .319, ranking seventh, and a .425 slugging percentage. It’s not hard to see why they’re favored to win.
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros Betting Pick
We’d normally give the Twins the benefit of the doubt against other teams. However, these odds are stacked against them. They’re facing another ace from the Astros rotation, and they don’t have one of their own.
What’s more important is that they have a hard time closing games out. Without a good closer, the Twins leave themselves open for a comeback even if they’re up.
The Astros not only have a strong batting lineup but incredible pitching to go along with it. Sure, they gave up a few runs in the final inning of the game yesterday, but they ended it with a win. With Valdez on the mound and Tucker and Alvarez at the plate, the best bet is the Astros at -228.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Houston Astros -228, OVER
Prop Picks
Houston (-115) OVER 4.5 Runs
Houston is averaging 4.59 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 8 in the league. That average increases to 4.64 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone OVER in five of theAstros’ last seven home games.
With Dunkel predicting a Houston victory by the score of 6-4, take the Astros (-115) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against Minnesota.
Houston (-125) Most Hits
Houston is averaging 8.25 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 12 in the league. Houston is allowing 7.03 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 2 in the league. That average decreases to 6.90 hits per 9 innings at home.
With Dunkel predicting an Astros win while going OVER their Vegas team run total, take Houston (-125) to finish with more hits than Minnesota.
Yordan Alvarez (-165) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Alvarez has scored 77 runs in 105 games played this season, which ranks No. 1 on the Astros. The DH has scored 3 runs in 18 at-bats with an OPS of 1.038 against the Twins.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas total, take Alvarez (-165) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored versus Minnesota.
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