Michigan vs. Duke Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 21

In a contest pitting one of the best offensive squads in college basketball against one of the best squads defensively, the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (25-1) battle the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (24-2) at Capital One Arena on February 21, 2026. The Wolverines are fourth in points per game (90.6), and the Blue Devils are third in points conceded (63.2). Michigan is a favorite, by 2.5 points. The matchup has an over/under of 150.5 points.

Michigan came out on top in its last game 91-80 against Purdue on Tuesday. Elliot Cadeau scored a team-leading 17 points for Michigan in the win. Duke took care of business in its last matchup 101-64 against Syracuse on Monday. Cameron Boozer's team-leading 22 points paced Duke in the win.

Michigan vs. Duke Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 6:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
• Spread favorite: Michigan -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Michigan -157
• Moneyline underdog: Duke +127
• Over/Under: 150.5 points

How to watch Michigan vs. Duke

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Michigan vs. Duke

• This season, 17 of Michigan's 26 games have gone over Saturday's over/under of 150.5 points.
• This season, 11 games Duke has played finished with a combined score higher than 150.5 points.
• The point total for the game of 150.5 is 23.1 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Wolverines (90.6) and Blue Devils (83).
• These two teams surrender a combined 132 points per game, 18.5 points less than this contest's over/under.
• This season, the average over/under for Michigan's games is 159.4 points, 8.9 more than the total of 150.5 points set for this contest.
• The over/under for this game is 4.4 points more than the average over/under in Duke's games this season (146.1 points).

Betting the Spread: Michigan vs. Duke

• Against the spread, Michigan is 14-12-0 this year.
• This season, the Wolverines have an ATS record of 13-12 in their 25 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or more.
• Duke has played 26 games, with 14 wins against the spread.
• Duke is 6-7 against the spread, and 13-0 overall, at home this season.
• At home, Duke is 6-7 ATS as a 2.5-point underdog or greater.
• This season away from home, Michigan is 3-6 against the spread and 9-0 overall.
• On the road, as 2.5-point favorites or more, Michigan is 3-6 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: Michigan vs. Duke

• Michigan has won 24, or 96%, of the 25 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Wolverines have a record of 22-1 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -157 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.1% chance of a victory for Michigan.
• Duke has yet to play a game this season while posted as the moneyline underdog.
• Oddsmakers have given the Blue Devils the worst odds of winning they have seen this season with a +127 moneyline listed for this contest.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Duke has a 44.1% chance of walking away with the win.