Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview/Prop Picks
03 September 2022
Time: 7:20 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 15.873; Atlanta 15.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by ½; 9
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-184); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+164); Over
After suffering an 8-0 loss last night, the Miami Marlins are looking to bounce back. Unfortunately, they're playing one of the best teams in the NL East tonight.
With a record of 55-76, the Marlins are fourth in the division. They've lost five games in a row and come in as +164 underdogs tonight. Can they beat the odds and pull off a win on the road over Atlanta?
The Atlanta Braves have a record of 82-51 and are second in the NL East. Following closely behind the New York Mets, a few key wins could see them win the division.
They'll first need to secure a win over the Miami Marlins tonight. After last night's win, it's no surprise that the Braves come into this game as favorites. The question is, are they the best bet to win tonight?
Miami Marlins: A strong pitching outing is needed tonight
If the Marlins want to pull off a win tonight, they'll need to be nearly perfect on the mound. Getting the nod tonight is Edward Cabrera, who has a 4-2 record this season.
Although his record is impressive, it's his 2.45 ERA that will help the Marlins win tonight. If he can slow down the Braves batters, it will give Miami the proper opening. They can then capitalize at the plate.
This season, the Marlins have a batting average of .229, ranking 26th in the league. They have poor batting rankings in nearly every category as well.
Their on-base percentage of .294, ranks 27th overall, and they have the 27th ranked slugging percentage as well. This team doesn't perform well at the plate, but they'll definitely need to as they face Atlanta.
Atlanta Braves: Braves will start the 5-5 Jake Odorizzi
The Atlanta Braves are doing everything they can to grab the top spot in the NL East. The only problem is their pitchers haven't been too consistent lately.
Over their last five games, the Braves are 3-2, with losses to the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies. Both of those teams are known as great batting teams, but it was the Braves' pitching that lost the game.
Getting the start tonight is the 5-5 Jake Odorizzi, who has an ERA of 3.90. In our opinion, the Marlins definitely have the edge in terms of pitching. At the plate, however, is where the Braves have the edge tonight.
This season, the Braves have an average of .253, ranking ninth in Major League Baseball. They have the 11th-best on-base percentage at .317 as well.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Betting Pick
Both of these NL East teams have positives and negatives. The Marlins have the edge on the mound but have struggled to earn runs this season.
The Braves have the better batters but are losing the pitching battle frequently this season. The Marlins have yet to win a game over Atlanta in their last six meetings. However, we think that will all change after tonight's game.
The Marlins have the better pitcher here, which is the main reason why we'll take them. It's also important to note that the total has gone over in five of Miami's last six games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Miami Marlins +164, OVER
Prop Picks
Miami (+100) OVER 3.5 Runs
Miami is averaging 3.58 runs per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 27 in MLB. That average increases to 3.66 runs per 9 innings on the road. Scores have gone OVER in five of the Marlins last six road games versus the Braves.
With Dunkel predicting a Miami win by the score of 5-4, take the Marlins (+100) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 3.5 runs against the Braves.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (-135) OVER 0.5 Runs Scored
Acuna has scored 58 runs in 94 games played this season, which ranks No. 4 on the Braves. The right fielder has scored 5 runs in 37 at-bats with an OBP of .429 against the Marlins.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas run total, take Acuna (-135) to finish OVER 0.5 runs scored versus Miami.
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