Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview/Prop Picks

We’re heading into Game 4 of the series between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers tonight. At the moment, the Heat leads the series two games to one.

However, the most recent game was a 99-79 win by the Philadelphia 76ers. With Embiid back in the lineup, the Heat could have trouble slowing down the 76ers offense. So, what should their game plan be tonight?

For the 76ers, the plan should be pretty simple, get the ball to Embiid. After seeing how vital he is to the success of the team, expect a heavy dose from him tonight.

Still, the 76ers will need to overcome one of the best defenses in the NBA. If they can’t, they could find themselves down 3-1 in this series and returning to Miami. Let’s go over both teams and make our pick for today.

Miami Heat: The defense needs to take a step forward today

Now, the Heat doesn’t have just Harden and Maxey to stop, which they easily did in Game 1 and 2. With Embiid back in the lineup, their interior defense will need to take a step forward.

Bam Adebayo is the center for the Miami Heat and is massively undersized compared to Embiid. The Heat need to do whatever they can to get Adebayo the help he needs.

This could mean double-teaming Embiid, which would leave one player open. There are some weak points in the 76ers offense that the Heat need to exploit.

They were able to get two wins over them already; getting one on the road would be huge for them. Unfortunately, with how dominant Embiid was in Game 3, this might be too tough of a challenge.

Philadelphia 76ers: Interior offense will be the key to another win

Interestingly enough, Embiid didn’t lead the scoring category for the 76ers in Game 3. However, he still notched a double-double in the time he played. Danny Green led the 76ers in points with 21, and Embiid put up 11 rebounds.

Tyrese Maxey tied for the most points, scoring 21 in Game 3, and Harden put up 17. We need to see more from Harden and Embiid tonight.

With his massive size advantage, Embiid should dominate the paint today. He can work inside while his teammates shoot from the perimeter. If the 76ers can put this plan into place, they should be able to tie this series.

It’s also important to note that the 76ers come in as 1.5-point favorites here. With the spread so small, which of these teams is the best pick?

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Betting Pick

After watching Game 3, we doubt the 76ers will lose at home tonight. Their offense easily beat the Heat by 20 points, and that was without a high-scoring game from Embiid.

Look for Embiid to have a larger role in the offense tonight. We also expect to see a better performance from James Harden, who has yet to fully embrace his role.

Since the 76ers only need to cover 1.5 points, they should have no problem against the spread. We’ll also take the over in this game since it’s set to a low total of 208.

DunkelIndex Free Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5, OVER

Prop Picks

Philadelphia (-115) OVER 104.5 Points

Philadelphia is averaging 109.9 points per game on offense, which ranks No. 18 in the league, while shooting 36.4 percent from 3-point range, which ranks No. 7. Scores have gone OVER in six of the Sixers’ last eight home games.

With Dunkel predicting a Philadelphia victory by the score of 108-103, take the Sixers (-115) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 104.5 points against the Heat.

James Harden (-125) OVER 19.5 Points

Harden averaged 22.0 points per game in 65 games during the regular season, which ranked No. 2 on the Sixers. That average increased to 22.5 points per game at home and 23.6 points per game in wins.

With Dunkel predicting a Sixers victory at home, take Harden (-125) to finish OVER his Vegas point total of 19.5 points against Miami.

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