Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Betting Preview/Prop Picks

We’re entering Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and the Heat are down 3-2. This series has been rough for Miami, who’s still dealing with lingering injuries.

However, those players on the injury list are probable for tonight’s game. The question is, will they make much of an impact tonight? Or will we see more of the same lackluster offense from Miami today?

The Boston Celtics have had a commanding presence on the court. Over their last two games, they’ve kept the Heat under 85 points of offense.

With such a strong defense, it’s no surprise that they come in as 8.5-point favorites. After just beating the Heat by 13, many believe that they can cover this spread. We’re going to look at each team and find the best pick tonight.

Miami Heat: A poor offense is a ticket to an early exit

When you look at what happened in the Western Conference Finals, you begin to understand something. The fact is, defense is a great asset to have as a team, but the offense is the primary function.

The Heats offense has averaged just 98.2 points per game, well under their season average. Another game like this, and they’ll find themselves going home to Miami.

One thing we’ll say in favor of the Heat is they play better on the road. In Game 3 on the road against Boston, Miami won the game 109-103. They were led by Bam Adebayo, who seems like the only player working hard on offense.

Adebayo had 31 points and shot 15 for 22 that night. If they can get Adebayo the ball and opportunities, they could win on Friday night.

Boston Celtics: Tatum & Co. looking to close out the series

Although Boston is likely ready to close the series at home, it’ll take a lot of work. They have the Heat’s backs against the wall, and the Celtics are rolling.

They’ve won two straight games by a margin of 10 points or more. Just a few days ago, they beat the Miami Heat 102-82. Their offense is averaging 106.4 points per game, and their defense has been impenetrable.

However, even with everything going in their direction, there’s a chance they can slip up. What they’ll need to do is make sure they stay focused and keep their eye on the goal.

Frankly, it’s likely that they’ll win this game, but covering the spread is a different task. They’re favored by 8.5-points tonight, so can they cover a large margin, or is the best bet the Heat?

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics Betting Pick

After looking at the spread in this one, we’ve got to go with the Miami Heat +8.5. One reason why is because the Heat has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against Boston.

In fact, on the road this season, the Heat has gone 28-19-1 ATS. One of the two games they’ve won in this series was on the road against Boston.

Although we believe the Heat will cover, we think the Celtics will win the game. We’ll also take the under here, although it’s set rather low. Look for the Celtics to win this game, but for Miami to cover and the total to go under 201.

DunkelIndex Free Pick: Miami Heat +8.5, UNDER

Prop Picks

Boston (-120) UNDER 105.5 Points

Miami is allowing 105.6 points per game on defense, which ranks No. 4 in the league, while holding teams to 33.9 percent shooting from 3-point range, which ranks No. 2. Scores have gone UNDER in five of the Heat’s last seven road games.

With Dunkel predicting a Boston victory by the score of 101-97, take the Celtics (-120) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 105.5 points against the Heat.

Bam Adebayo (-115) UNDER 16.5 Points

Adebayo averaged 19.1 points per game in 56 games during the regular season, which ranked No. 3 on the Heat. That average has decreased to 14.7 points per game in 16 postseason games.

With Dunkel predicting a Boston win with the final score staying UNDER the Vegas total, take Adebayo (-115) to finish UNDER his Vegas point total of 16.5 points against the Celtics.

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