Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Preview/Prop Picks
26 April 2022
The Mexico Open will make its first-ever appearance on the PGA Tour. Normally the WGC Mexico is played at this time every year, but the Tour decided to change it up this time.
This event will feature a handful of betting options to consider, especially with how far the talent is spread. Below you can see which betting option might be the best pick.
Tournament Info
Date: Apr 28–May 1, 2022
Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Watch on: GOLF, CBS
Purse: $7,300,000
Betting Overview
Since this is the first time Tour players will be competing here, there is not any course history to go off of. In addition, many have never played here or have even heard of it.
This course has been used in the past for the Korn Ferry Tour and the European Tour. However, the talent compared to those golfers is nowhere near the same as ranked golfers or ones that have a ton more experience.
The course also has moved a few Par 5’s down to Par 4’s, which means long hitters off of the tee will benefit greatly. In addition, strong iron play is always a crucial aspect to consider.
Head to Head Matchup to Watch
Tony Finau (-33.842) and Jon Rahm (-33.946) make an interesting pair to watch compete. Both are excellent golfers and have tons of experience playing in similar matches.
Finau has not been playing that well as of late, but neither has Rahm. However, Rahm is looking like he is on the right track.
Dunkel Index For This Event
The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 golfers that could win this event. The following ten are:
1 Tony Finau -33.842
2 Jon Rahm -33.946
3 Sebastian Munoz -34.095
4 Cameron Tringale -35.015
5 Patrick Reed -35.117
6 CT Pan -35.150
7 Abraham Ancer -35.219
8 Kevin Na -35.958
9 Gary Woodland -37.033
10 Aaron Wise -37.41
*index is subject to changes
Golfers That Could Win
Gary Woodland is one golfer with a real shot for his odds to win. Looking at the previous 24 rounds, he has compiled very competitive strokes gained stats compared to the field.
There have been a few times when he was in contention to win, like his tie for fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his T8 at Valero, and his T21 at the Valspar Championship.
His stats show he is dangerously good lately at his approach and consistent from tee to green. Since this is a weaker field, he has a great chance to succeed.
Potential Winning Pick
Jon Rahm has not been playing to the standards of a former number one golfer in the world. His game has been perfect so far, except for his putter.
Assuming he finds a way to tweak that particular aspect, he has this victory in the bag. Look for him to finally break out with a victory this year.
Prop Picks
Tournament Matchup: Tony Finau (-120) OVER Abraham Ancer
Finau, who will be playing his first tournament since finishing in a tie for 35th at The Masters, finished 14th in this tournament last year.
Ancer will certainly be the hometown favorite, but has yet to find his groove after missing the cut at The Masters and Valspar Championship. His best finish in stroke play this year was a tie for 33rd at the Players Championship.
With Finau rated No. 1 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Ancer at No. 7, these two should be on the leaderboard all weekend, but take Finau (-120) to get the better of this matchup.
Tournament Matchup: CT Pan (-120) OVER Adam Long
Pan has made the cut in his last three events and has four Top 25 and a pair of Top 10 finishes to his credit this season.
After finishing in a tie for 12th at the RBC Heritage, Long missed the cut last week at the Zurich Classic and has now missed the cut in two of his last four events.
With Pan ranked No. 6 in this week’s Dunkel Index and Long at No. 12, take Pan (-130) to have the edge in this matchup.
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