Louisville vs. Baylor Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 14

The No. 24 Louisville Cardinals (18-6) play the Baylor Bears (13-11) as 6.5-point favorites on Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN. The over/under in the matchup is set at 163.5.

Louisville is coming off of a 118-77 win against NC State in its most recent outing on Monday. Mikel Brown Jr. recorded 45 points, nine rebounds and two assists for Louisville. Baylor fell in its last game 99-94 against BYU on Tuesday. Baylor got a team-high 37 points from Tounde Yessoufou in the loss.

Louisville vs. Baylor Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 14, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET
• Where: Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas
• Spread favorite: Louisville -6.5
• Moneyline favorite: Louisville -304
• Moneyline underdog: Baylor +240
• Over/Under: 163.5 points

How to watch Louisville vs. Baylor

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Louisville vs. Baylor

• This season, eight of Louisville's 24 games have gone over Saturday's over/under of 163.5 points.
• A total of 12 of Baylor's games have finished with a combined score over 163.5 points this season.
• The total for the matchup of 163.5 is 7.5 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Cardinals (87.1) and Bears (83.9).
• This game's total is 16.7 fewer points than the 146.8 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• This season the average over/under for Louisville's games is 158.0 points, 5.5 fewer than the over/under of 163.5 set for this contest.
• The over/under for this contest is 3.7 points higher than the average over/under in Baylor's games this season of 159.8.

Betting the Spread: Louisville vs. Baylor

• Louisville has 13 wins against the spread in 24 games this season.
• The Cardinals have been favored by 6.5 points or more 17 times this season and are 11-6 ATS in those matchups.
• Against the spread, Baylor is 10-13-0 this season.
• The Bears have covered the spread once this season when underdogs by 6.5 points or more (in three chances).
• Baylor is 5-8 against the spread, and 8-5 overall, at home.
• At home, Baylor is 5-3 ATS as a 6.5-point underdog or greater.
• On the road, Louisville has two wins against the spread and are 3-4 overall.
• On the road, Louisville has two wins ATS (2-2) as 6.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Louisville vs. Baylor

• This season, Louisville has won 17 out of the 20 games, or 85%, in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• The Cardinals have a record of 14-1, a 93.3% win rate, when favored by -304 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from Louisville, based on the moneyline, is 75.2%.
• Baylor has come away with one win in the 10 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Bears have been listed as an underdog of +240 or more on two occasions this season and lost both games.
• Baylor has an implied victory probability of 29.4% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.