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Lightning vs. Blues NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Jan. 16

16 January 2026 By Data Skrive

Both the Tampa Bay Lightning and St. Louis Blues are coming off a victory, heading into their meeting at Enterprise Center on Friday at 8 p.m. ET. Lightning (-205) at Blues (+170) appears like a mismatch, according to the moneyline odds.

Tampa Bay won in a shootout on the road its last time out on Jan. 13 against the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1, taking the shootout 2-1 to secure the victory. The Lightning got one point apiece out of three skaters, including Yanni Gourde (one assist) and Janis Moser (one goal).

St. Louis won at home in its last game on Jan. 13, 3-0 over the Carolina Hurricanes. Dalibor Dvorsky (one goal) and Jimmy Snuggerud (one goal) were among the nine Blues players who put up one point each in that matchup.

Here is our prediction for who will secure the win in Friday's matchup.

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Lightning vs. Blues Predictions & Pick

Ahead of the upcoming contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and St. Louis Blues, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, per Dunkel Index.

  • Prediction: Lightning 3 - Blues 1
  • Pick OU: Under 5.5 (Dunkel projecting 4.03 goals)

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Lightning vs. Blues Moneylines

Grab a look below at the latest moneylines for the Lightning-Blues game.

  • Favorite: Lightning (-205)
  • Underdog: Blues (+170)

Lightning Betting Insights

  • The Lightning are 22-13 when listed as a moneyline favorite this season.
  • Tampa Bay is 2-2 when playing with moneyline odds of -205 or shorter (50.0% win percentage).
  • Based on the moneyline in this game, the Lightning's implied win probability is 67.2%.
  • In 26 games this season, Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined for more than 5.5 goals.

Blues Betting Insights

  • This season the Blues have been an underdog 28 times, and won 15, or 53.6%, of those games.
  • This season St. Louis has been at least a +170 underdog on the moneyline three times, losing each of those contests.
  • The Blues have a 37.0% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • St. Louis and its opponent have combined to score more than 5.5 goals in 24 of 47 games this season.

Lightning Key Stats

  • Tampa Bay has scored the fifth-most goals in the league (158 total, 3.5 per game).
  • The Lightning have conceded 115 total goals (2.6 per game), ranking second in NHL play for the fewest goals against.
  • Its goal differential (+43) makes the team second-best in the league.
  • The 28 power-play goals the Lightning have put up this season rank 15th in the NHL (on 144 power-play chances).
  • Tampa Bay ranks 19th in the league with a 19.44% power-play conversion rate.
  • The three shorthanded goals the Lightning have scored this season rank 14th among NHL teams.
  • Tampa Bay kills 83.67% of opponent power plays, the fifth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • Tampa Bay has the 31st-ranked faceoff win rate in the NHL, at 46%.
  • The Lightning make 12.9% of their shots (second in the league).

Blues Key Stats

  • St. Louis has 117 goals this season (2.5 per game), 32nd in the league.
  • The Blues have given up 159 total goals this season (3.4 per game), 29th in the league.
  • With a goal differential of -42, the team is 31st in the league.
  • The Blues have 21 power-play goals (29th in NHL) on 123 chances.
  • St. Louis' power-play percentage (17.07) ranks the team 24th in the league.
  • In terms of shorthanded goals, the Blues have five.
  • The 77.05% penalty-kill percentage of St. Louis is 25th in the NHL.
  • St. Louis wins 50.5% of faceoffs, 14th-ranked in the NHL.
  • The Blues' 10.1% shooting percentage is 25th in the league.

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