Liberty vs. New Mexico State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 11

The Liberty Flames (20-3, 12-0 CUSA) are favored by 3.5 points versus the New Mexico State Aggies (11-12, 4-9 CUSA) on February 11, 2026 at Pan American Center. The Flames are on a roll, having won 14 in a row and going 10-0 in their past 10 games. The point total for the matchup is 143.5.

Liberty is coming off of a 79-76 victory against Missouri State in its last outing on Saturday. Brett Decker Jr. scored a team-high 20 points for Liberty in the win. New Mexico State dropped its most recent matchup 91-88 in OT against UTEP on Saturday. Jemel Jones scored 26 points in New Mexico State's loss, leading the team.

Liberty vs. New Mexico State Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Pan American Center in Las Cruces, New Mexico
• Spread favorite: Liberty -3.5
• Moneyline favorite: Liberty -175
• Moneyline underdog: New Mexico State +145
• Over/Under: 143.5 points

How to watch Liberty vs. New Mexico State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Liberty vs. New Mexico State

• This season, Liberty's games have hit the over on this matchup's 143.5-point over/under 13 times.
• There have been 14 New Mexico State games that ended with a combined score higher than 143.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 155 points per game, 11.5 points more than the over/under of 143.5 for this game.
• This game's over/under is 5.0 fewer points than the 138.5 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• On average, Liberty has had a 146.8-point over/under in its games this season, 3.3 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
• A difference of 3.2 points separates the average over/under in New Mexico State's games (146.7 points) and this game's over/under (143.5).

Betting the Spread: Liberty vs. New Mexico State

• Liberty has played 20 games, with 10 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Flames have been installed as favorites by a 3.5-point margin or more 15 times and are 6-9 ATS in those games.
• New Mexico State has played 20 games, with nine wins against the spread.
• The Aggies have covered the spread twice this season when underdogs by 3.5 points or more (in three chances).
• New Mexico State is 4-4 against the spread, and 4-4 overall, at home.
• New Mexico State has two wins ATS (2-4) as a 3.5-point underdog or greater at home.
• This season on the road, Liberty is 5-3 against the spread and 7-1 overall.
• On the road, Liberty has one win ATS (1-2) as 3.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Liberty vs. New Mexico State

• Liberty has entered the game as moneyline favorites 17 times this season and won 15, or 88.2%, of those games.
• This season, the Flames have won 12 of their 14 games, or 85.7%, when favored by at least -175 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Liberty has a 63.6% chance to win.
• New Mexico State has been a moneyline underdog in eight games this season and has come away with the win three times (37.5%) in those contests.
• This season, the Aggies have been victorious one time in three chances when named as an underdog of at least +145 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies New Mexico State has a 40.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.