Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview/Prop Picks
02 October 2022
Time: 8:20 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 147.123; Tampa Bay 129.545
Dunkel Line & Total: Kansas City by 18; 52
Vegas Line & Total: Kansas City by 2 ½; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-2 ½); Over
The Kansas City Chiefs have a record of 2-1 but are facing a tough defense tonight. They'll head to Tampa Bay to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
After last week's 20-17 loss to the New England Patriots, the Chiefs are hoping to bounce back this week. They'll need to get their offense going early, however, as they're facing the best defense in the league today.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into this game with a 2-1 record as well. They also took a Week 3 loss to the Green Bay Packers, another team with a great defense.
It's been a tough start to the season for the Buccaneers offensively, especially after last week. As they prepare to face the Chiefs, they'll need their defense to do most of the heavy lifting.
Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes needs a quick start today
Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the Green Bay Packers to just 14 points. This season, the Buccaneers have allowed just nine points per game.
Because of this, the Chiefs' offense is going to need to get a quick start offensively. On average, the Chiefs have averaged 29.3 points per game, ranking fourth in the NFL. However, there are a few injuries to consider.
It's been announced that Marquez Valdes-Scantling, wide receiver for the Chiefs, is expected to play. Akiem Hicks, defensive tackle for the Buccaneers, has been ruled out for this game.
Hicks being out gives the Chiefs a chance to establish the run early. If they can do that, the passing game should open up for the Chiefs as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs will need more than just defense
This season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have relied solely on their defense to win games. In their first game of the year, they held the Dallas Cowboys to only three points.
Last week, they held the Packers to only 14 but could only score 12. Their offense has struggled to put up points this season, averaging just 17 points per game. They rank 22nd in the league in this category.
The Chiefs' defense allows 21.7 points per game; the Buccaneers need to take advantage of this. One area we see a real problem with the Buccaneers is that they average just 86 rushing yards per game.
If they can't get their running game going, the Buccaneers are going to lose this game. The teams they've faced don't have nearly as good of an offense as the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick
The Chiefs come into this game as 2.5-point favorites, which are pretty great odds. Although they struggled against the Indianapolis Colts, they should do well against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay's offense hasn't done well this season, and the Chiefs can take advantage of that. After last week's loss, we expect the Chiefs to get off to a fast start tonight.
The total has gone over in eight of Kansas City's last 11 games, so we'll take the over as well. Since they only need to win by 2.5 points, a field goal would cover the spread. Because of this, we'll go with the Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 and the over.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5, OVER
Prop Picks
Kansas City (-130) OVER 2.5 Team Total Touchdowns
Kansas City averaged 29.4 points per game last season on offense, which ranked No. 4 in the NFL. That average has remained relatively consistent at 29.3 points per game so far this season. Scores have gone OVER in eight of the Chiefs’ last 11 games overall.
With Dunkel predicting a Kansas City win by the score of 35-17, take the Chiefs (-130) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 2.5 TDs versus the Bucs.
Mike Evans (-120) OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Evans averaged 64.7 receiving yards per game last season. That average has increased to 66.0 receiving yards per game this season. Kansas City allowed 251.5 passing yards per game last season on defense, which ranked No. 27 in the league. That average increased to 263.6 passing yards per game on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas point total, take Evans (-120) to finish OVER 69.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs.
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