Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

It will be a potential playoff preview on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Miami Dolphins for a Week 14 contest.

When the 2020 NFL schedule first came out, this game was most noteworthy for the Chiefs' return to Hard Rock Stadium, where they won the Super Bowl in February. But since that time, this has turned into one of the better and most important matchups of Week 14.

Kansas City is now tied for the top seed in the AFC and needs a win to keep that hope alive. Meanwhile, the Dolphins sit just a game behind the Bills for first place in the AFC East and are looking to stay within striking distance for their game with Buffalo in Week 17.

The Line: Chiefs (-7.5) at Dolphins

Kansas City is the Dunkel Index's top-ranked NFL team (139.139) and is riding a seven-game winning streak. Of course, the Chiefs are favored and by just over a touchdown. On the other side, Miami is no slouch, sitting at ninth on the Dunkel Index (136.131) and winner in seven of its last eight games.

The big edge, of course, is at quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is playing just as well as he did during his MVP season of 2018 and is currently the betting favorite to win a second MVP award. 

The Dolphins believe their future is bright with rookie Tua Tagovailoa, but his stardom is still to come. He played well against the Bengals last week, but his outing before that against Denver was a struggle.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are a bettor's conundrum. They have the best offense in the league and can score from anywhere on the field on one play, and they have allowed less than 21 points in a game eight times this season, which is tops in the NFL. That sounds like the perfect formula for blowout win after blowout win.

Instead, in each of their last four games, all wins, the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread. Ironically the last time they covered was the biggest spread of the season - 20 points against the Jets.

The Chiefs are now just 6-6 on the season against the spread.

Miami Dolphins

On the other side, the Dolphins are the best team in the NFL when it comes to playing against the spread. They are 9-3 ATS and covered the spread in seven of their last eight games. 

Some of that is related to playing above expectations and the betting public being a little slow in recognizing that they are a much better team this year.

A lot of it, however, is because this is a really good defense, and fewer points from their opponents mean an easier time at covering. In Miami's last three covers, it has given up an average of 10 points per game.

The Pick

Miami isn't holding the Chiefs to 10 points. Kansas City hasn't scored less than 22 points in its last 25 games. 

But the Dunkel Index does like the Dolphins to keep this game closer than Las Vegas thinks and cover the 7.5-point spread. The Chiefs' last four wins have been by less than a touchdown, and the same thing will happen in Miami on Sunday.

For more Dunkel Index NFL picks, go to our NFL picks page.