Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 12

The Illinois State Redbirds (16-9, 8-6 MVC) take on the Valparaiso Beacons (13-12, 7-7 MVC) as 9.5-point favorites on Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under of 135.5 points.

Illinois State is coming off of an 88-80 loss to Evansville in its last outing on Monday. In Illinois State's loss, Landon Moore led the way with a team-high 16 points (adding one rebound and one assist). Valparaiso won its most recent game 81-76 against Drake on Monday. JT Pettigrew's team-high 23 points paced Valparaiso in the victory.

Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, February 12, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: CEFCU Arena in Normal, Illinois
• Spread favorite: Illinois State -9.5
• Moneyline favorite: Illinois State -595
• Moneyline underdog: Valparaiso +415
• Over/Under: 135.5 points

How to watch Illinois State vs. Valparaiso

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Illinois State vs. Valparaiso

• This season, 18 of Illinois State's 24 games have gone over Thursday's over/under of 135.5 points.
• There have been 15 Valparaiso games that finished with a combined score higher than 135.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 148.2 points per game, 12.7 points more than the over/under of 135.5 for this matchup.
• This matchup's over/under is 2.3 fewer points than the 137.8 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• This season, the average over/under for Illinois State's games is 144.4 points, 8.9 more than the total of 135.5 points set for this contest.
• Valparaiso's games have an average over/under of 141.6 points this season, 6.1 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Illinois State vs. Valparaiso

• In Illinois State's 24 games this year, it has 13 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Redbirds have been installed as favorites by a 9.5-point margin or more eight times and are 5-3 ATS in those matchups.
• In Valparaiso's 24 games this season, it has 18 wins against the spread.
• The Beacons have an against the spread record of 4-2 in their six games as an underdog of 9.5 points or more this year.
• At home this year, Illinois State is 9-2 overall and 7-4 against the spread.
• As a 9.5-point favorite or greater at home, Illinois State is 5-2 ATS.
• This season in away games, Valparaiso is 9-2 against the spread and 3-8 overall.

Betting the Moneyline: Illinois State vs. Valparaiso

• Illinois State has entered the game as moneyline favorites 18 times this season and won 13, or 72.2%, of those games.
• The Redbirds have entered seven games this season favored by -595 or more and are 5-2 in those contests.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 85.6% chance of a victory for Illinois State.
• Valparaiso has been a moneyline underdog in 16 games this season and has come away with the win five times (31.2%) in those contests.
• The Beacons have yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +415 or worse on the moneyline this season.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Valparaiso has a 19.4% chance of pulling out a win.